March brings us the holy grail of sports statistics.
Every year, millions of fans fill out a bracket predicting the winners of all 63 games in the men's college basketball tournament.
Yet no one has ever submitted a verified perfect bracket.
If every game were a pure 50/50 statistical event, the odds of a perfect bracket would be a whopping 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
But brackets aren't totally random. Fans use statistics, logic, and basketball knowledge to make informed picks. With an average prediction accuracy of around 67%, the odds improve to 1 in 120 billion.
Visualizing 1 in 120 billion
One grain in 80 truckloads of rice
Dump 80 semi-trucks of rice into a giant pile. The perfect bracket is one grain.
One sheet in a stack of paper 27,000 Empire State Buildings tall
If every possible bracket were printed on paper, the stack would be 27,000 Empire State Buildings tall.
One bracket per second for 3,800 years
If you filled out a bracket every second, it would take about 3,800 years to expect one perfect bracket.
One pixel in a wall of 14,500 4K screens
Fill a wall with 14,500 4K TVs, only one pixel is the coveted perfect bracket.
Like picking the right asteroid in the entire solar system.
Prizes
$1B
The perfect bracket
A perfect bracket that correctly predicts every single game in the tournament.
$1M
The top scoring bracket
The highest scorer in our leaderboard will get $1 million dollars.
$1M
Charitable donation
We're donating an additional $1 million dollars to charity and scholarships.
SIG Parametrics, LLC, a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies, is financially backing this promotion.
Rules
Free to enter
There is no purchase or deposit necessary to submit a bracket. This promotion is only available for verified Kalshi members.
18+ US residents only
Age verification required, must be 18 and older. Due to state regulations, New York and Florida residents are not eligible for this offer. Other local restrictions may also apply. Tournament players, coaches, team staff, and officials are not eligible for this offer.
One bracket per user
Each participating verified Kalshi account is entitled to one single bracket entry. All brackets must be submitted before tip off of the first game of the tournament on March 19th, 2026 or 1pm EDT of March 19th, 2026, whichever is earlier.
Winning the Contest
A participant who correctly predicts every single game in the tournament is eligible for $1 billion prize, subject to verification and contest rules and terms.
If no winner correctly predicts every single game, the participant with the highest scoring bracket is eligible for $1 million prize, subject to verification and contest rules and terms.
In the event of any tie, any prize will be divided equally among eligible winners, subject to verification and contest rules and terms.
Entry cap
We're accepting a maximum of 10 million total entries. Secure your spot early — once we're full, we're full. Having a Kalshi account does not guarantee entry.
Full Rules
You can view the full set of contest rules here. Potential winners eligible for any prize only after verification as outlined in rules. Submission of accurate and truthful information required from all participants at all times. Kalshi reserves all rights, including, but not limited to, those set forth in terms and rules.
FAQ
Is this real?
SIG Parametrics, LLC, a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies, is financially backing this promotion.
How do you determine the closest bracket?
We'll have a leaderboard with a point system. You earn points for each correctly predicted game.
For each correct pick in your bracket, you receive points based on the round. If your pick is incorrect, you don't get any points. The highest scoring bracket gets $1 million dollars.
- Round of 64: 10 points
- Round of 32: 20 points
- Sweet 16: 40 points
- Elite 8: 80 points
- Final Four: 160 points
- Championship: 320 points
What happens if there's a tie?
If two or more brackets finish with the same number of points or if multiple perfect brackets are submitted, the prize will be split equally among the winners.
What charity are you donating to?
We're proud to partner with mentoring nonprofit iMentor, granting them $500k as part of this challenge. iMentor builds relationships that equip students from first-generation backgrounds to navigate the complexities of financial literacy and career readiness.
We're also giving $500k to Devin Booker's charity, Starting Five, which supports local Arizona youth and family organizations.
Terms and conditions
Full contest terms and conditions apply (link). Participants must be 18 years of age or older to be eligible for contest. Restrictions based on residency may result in ineligibility. Attempt to enter contest without meeting eligibility requirements will result in disqualification. Any potential winners are subject to verification of eligibility by contest sponsors. Any prize winners are subject to and responsible for any federal, state, local, or other applicable taxes associated with acceptance of prize. Participants agree not to communicate with any player, student, staff, coach, or other person to influence or attempt to influence the outcome of a game in any way, or to influence or attempt to influence their chance of winning the contest. Binding terms regarding liability, disclaimers, and arbitration provisions apply. Contest is not endorsed by or associated with the NCAA.