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Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Republicans have a 52% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 69 days to Election
50DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats47
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 13
DColorado95%DDelaware96%DGeorgia92%DIllinois95%DMassachusetts96%DMinnesota90%DNorth Carolina92%DNew Hampshire90%DNew Jersey95%DNew Mexico97%DOregon97%DRhode Island97%DVirginia97%

Likely Democratic

Total 0
No races

Lean Democratic

Total 3
DAlaska62%DMaine69%DMichigan60%

Toss-up

Total 3Dem 2Rep 1
RIowa56%DOhio55%DTexas51%

Lean Republican

Total 1
RNebraska70%

Likely Republican

Total 2
RKansas82%RSouth Carolina87%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama97%RArkansas90%RFlorida92%RIdaho95%RKentucky94%RLouisiana94%RMississippi93%RMontana90%ROklahoma97%RSouth Dakota92%RTennessee97%RWest Virginia97%RWyoming99%

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$2,234,284 vol10 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$644,676 vol2 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

49
50
$639,959 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$500,878 vol6 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Alaska
Alaska
Alaska
$350,013 vol17 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Talarico defeats Paxton
Paxton defeats Talarico
$283,198 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$177,704 vol1 market
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$73,979 vol6 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$70,322 vol7 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 3
$58,830 vol4 markets
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
50%
50%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
69%
31%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
60%
40%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
54%
46%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
44%
56%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
92%
8%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
93%
7%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
14%
86%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
62%
38%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
29%
71%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
7%
93%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
9%
91%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
20%
80%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
91%
9%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
91%
9%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
5%
95%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
8%
92%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
3%
97%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
8%
92%
Louisiana
D
Jamie DavisDavis
R
Julia LetlowLetlow
6%
94%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

More markets

131 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$92,846,606 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.50x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.73x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$798,550 vol
Yes
2.73x
No
1.48x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$363,650 vol
Yes
2.24x
No
1.67x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$413,810 vol
Yes
1.29x
No
3.80x
Other US Elections

Missouri State Senate District 8 winner?

$749 vol
Jon Patterson
1.36x
Keri Ingle
2.98x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$10,167 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.31x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
3.08x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$44,985 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.46x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.34x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$3,812 vol
Bo French
1.36x
Jon Rosenthal
2.89x
US Elections

Will Michigan approve a constitutional convention?

$1,239 vol
Yes
6.74x
No
1.09x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$14,172 vol
Yes
3.52x
No
1.28x
Secretary of State

Georgia Secretary of State winner?

$3,875 vol
Penny Brown Reynolds
Penny Brown Reynolds
Penny Brown Reynolds
1.73x
Tim Fleming
Tim Fleming
Tim Fleming
1.90x
Other US Elections

Michigan State House winner?

$1,965 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.04x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.14x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Missouri?

$3,848 vol
Amendment 8
1.34x
Amendment 7
3.96x
US Elections

Will the Massachusetts rent control initiative pass?

$30,541 vol
Yes
9.41x
No
1.03x
US Elections

Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?

$10,584 vol
Missouri Amendment 3
4.73x
Virginia Question 1
1.05x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

$44,357 vol
Economic Development Districts Amendment
1.31x
Water Infrastructure Bond Question
1.13x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$15,230 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.25x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
3.80x
Other US Elections

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

$874 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.67x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.97x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,186 vol
Republican Party
1.19x
Democratic Party
4.31x
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

$1,880 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.07x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.33x
Other US Elections

Florida State Senate winner?

$425 vol
Democratic party
8.56x
Republican party
1.02x
Other US Elections

Ohio State House winner?

$6,636 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.12x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
4.73x
Other US Elections

Florida State House winner?

$4,395 vol
Republican party
1.02x
Democratic party
7.85x
Other US Elections

Alaska State House winner?

$101 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.03x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.04x