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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have a 60% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 43 days to Election
52DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats48
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado98%DDelaware98%DGeorgia93%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts98%DMinnesota90%DNorth Carolina92%DNew Jersey98%DNew Mexico97%DOregon97%DRhode Island97%DVirginia97%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire83%

Lean Democratic

Total 5
DAlaska71%DMaine68%DMichigan66%DOhio61%DTexas60%

Toss-up

Total 0Dem 0Rep 0
No races

Lean Republican

Total 3
RIowa61%RKansas74%RNebraska69%

Likely Republican

Total 1
RSouth Carolina86%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama98%RArkansas94%RFlorida90%RIdaho93%RKentucky94%RLouisiana93%RMississippi92%RMontana92%ROklahoma97%RSouth Dakota92%RTennessee96%RWest Virginia97%RWyoming98%

More markets

Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
59%
41%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
67%
33%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
60%
40%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
66%
34%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
40%
60%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
93%
7%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
14%
86%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
32%
68%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
94%
6%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
27%
73%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
71%
29%
New Hampshire
D
Chris PappasPappas
R
John E. SununuSununu
83%
17%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
91%
9%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
11%
89%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
8%
92%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
7%
93%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
7%
93%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
6%
94%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
6%
94%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
7%
93%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$2,938,582 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

48
49
$1,045,193 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$803,248 vol6 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$650,043 vol2 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$547,007 vol17 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Talarico defeats Paxton
Paxton defeats Talarico
$341,144 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$253,803 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$201,461 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 2
$95,880 vol6 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 4
$66,398 vol4 markets
136 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$95,696,186 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.79x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.05x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$679,591 vol
Yes
1.20x
No
4.98x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$909,207 vol
Yes
2.81x
No
1.46x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$89,882 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.67x
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
2.19x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$494,250 vol
Yes
2.05x
No
1.79x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

$3,706 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
2.01x
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
2.52x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$23,928 vol
Yes
2.34x
No
1.60x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$13,856 vol
Yes
3.18x
No
1.31x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$47,854 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.60x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.05x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$20,114 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.26x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
2.89x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$20,731 vol
Yes
1.57x
No
2.40x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$13,861 vol
Proposition 38
1.28x
Proposition 5
1.23x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Nebraska?

$2,495 vol
Online Sports Wagering Authorization Constitutional Amendment
1.34x
Online Sports Wagering Regulation Initiative
1.34x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

$4,511 vol
Karen Bass, ≥2%
1.73x
Karen Bass, ≥4%
2.29x
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Senate winner?

$2,357 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.23x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.76x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$19,998 vol
Yes
3.52x
No
1.31x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$2,969 vol
Question 3
2.73x
Question 5
2.14x
Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$20,406 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.08x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.66x
US Elections

Georgia Lieutenant Governor winner?

$2,870 vol
Josh McLaurin
Josh McLaurin
Josh McLaurin
1.83x
Greg Dolezal
Greg Dolezal
Greg Dolezal
1.86x
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$13,689 vol
Republican party
1.02x
Democratic party
11.7x
Other US Elections

North Carolina State Senate winner?

$1,759 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.03x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
7.85x
Other US Elections

Minnesota State Senate winner?

$7,189 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.09x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.29x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?

$24,726 vol
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
2.19x
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
1.34x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$17,895 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.04x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
10.4x