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2026 Midterms

2026 Midterm Election Predictions

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US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
International elections
Leadership races
Governor
Referendums

Alaska Senate winner?

Nov 3
Democratic100%
Republican0%
The “S&P” for politics, powered by Kalshi markets — one number to represent the shifts in political power. Learn more
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Senate control forecast

DEM
REP
100%Safe Dem

House control forecast

DEM
REP
100%Safe Dem
LiveKalshi Midterms Forecast
56DEM forecastDem seats
LiveKalshi Midterms Forecast
REP forecastRep seats44
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
92 events
MarketPays outOdds

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

·US Elections
$139,309 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
5.25x
Nithya Raman, ≥14%
93.5x

Blue wave this year?

·Senate
$14,361,196 vol
Yes
1.01x
No
93.5x

Which ballot measures will pass in San Francisco?

·Referendums
$10,414 vol
Proposition I
15.6x
Proposition D
1.01x

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

·Mayors & local
$2,007 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.24x
Rick Caruso
Rick Caruso
7.85x

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

·US Elections
$166,648 vol
No, ≥4%
1.09x
No, ≥7%
46.8x

Blue tsunami this year?

·Senate
$4,023,296 vol
Yes
1.01x
No
93.5x

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

·Referendums
$112,192 vol
Proposition 4
5.90x
Proposition 5
--

North Carolina State Senate winner?

·State legislatures
$294,577 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.02x
Democratic party
Democratic party
93.5x

Alaska State House winner?

·State legislatures
$28,695 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.07x
Republican party
Republican party
46.8x

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

·Senate
$1,747,355 vol
Yes
--
No
93.5x

Mississippi Treasurer winner? (2027)

·Statewide offices
$593 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.09x
Democratic party
Democratic party
10.4x

New York City mayoral election winner?

·Mayors & local
$22,320 vol
Zohran Mamdani
Zohran Mamdani
1.23x
Jessica Tisch
Jessica Tisch
15.6x

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

·Referendums
$23,705 vol
Yes
13.4x
No
1.02x

Ohio Attorney General winner?

·Attorney General
$65,437 vol
John Kulewicz
John Kulewicz
1.01x
Keith Faber
Keith Faber
93.5x

Will Mamdani run for re-election?

US Elections
$3,056 vol
Yes
1.10x
No
4.98x

Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities this year?

·US Elections
$35,725 vol
Colorado Senate
2.14x
New Mexico House
2.14x

Alaska State Senate winner?

·State legislatures
$77,509 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.02x
Democratic party
Democratic party
46.8x

How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress this year?

·2028
$28,641 vol
At least 3
1.13x
At least 1
1.01x

Midterms: Blue trickle?

·Senate
$251,756 vol
Yes
--
No
93.5x

How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win this year?

·US Elections
$43,727 vol
Yes
--
No
18.8x

Kentucky Treasurer winner? (2027)

·Statewide offices
$0 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.10x
Democratic party
Democratic party
9.41x

Louisiana Treasurer winner? (2027)

·Statewide offices
$0 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.15x
Democratic party
Democratic party
5.90x

West Virginia Treasurer winner? (2028)

·Statewide offices
$0 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.09x
Democratic party
Democratic party
10.4x

Washington Treasurer winner? (2028)

·Statewide offices
$0 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.09x
Republican party
Republican party
11.7x