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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have a 62% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 36 days to Election
51DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats47
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 11
DColorado98%DDelaware99%DGeorgia94%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts98%DNorth Carolina94%DNew Jersey97%DNew Mexico98%DOregon97%DRhode Island99%DVirginia98%

Likely Democratic

Total 2
DMinnesota89%DNew Hampshire85%

Lean Democratic

Total 4
DAlaska71%DMaine61%DMichigan72%DTexas60%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 1Rep 1
RIowa57%DOhio58%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RKansas70%RNebraska70%

Likely Republican

Total 1
RSouth Carolina87%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama97%RArkansas93%RFlorida90%RIdaho91%RKentucky95%RLouisiana90%RMississippi90%RMontana91%ROklahoma97%RSouth Dakota92%RTennessee98%RWest Virginia98%RWyoming97%
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
60%
40%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
60%
40%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
71%
29%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
58%
42%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
42%
58%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
95%
5%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
29%
71%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
30%
70%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
70%
30%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
13%
87%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
95%
5%
New Hampshire
D
Chris PappasPappas
R
John E. SununuSununu
85%
15%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
88%
12%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
9%
91%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
9%
91%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
8%
92%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
10%
90%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
7%
93%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
9%
91%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
4%
96%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$3,356,867 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

48
49
$1,176,716 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$986,494 vol6 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$711,515 vol2 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$623,019 vol20 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Talarico defeats Paxton
Paxton defeats Talarico
$349,999 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$347,441 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$244,615 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 2
$97,255 vol6 markets
Senate

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 4
$69,509 vol4 markets

More markets

140 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$97,495,131 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.67x
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
2.24x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$764,937 vol
Yes
1.15x
No
6.29x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$110,627 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.86x
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
2.05x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,106,044 vol
Yes
3.08x
No
1.40x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$577,125 vol
Yes
1.97x
No
1.86x
Senate

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

$15,719 vol
Yes
3.66x
No
1.25x
US Elections

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

$10,529 vol
No, ≥10%
1.79x
No, ≥7%
1.55x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$18,558 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.07x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
15.6x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$28,588 vol
Yes
2.40x
No
1.52x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$25,747 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.42x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
2.73x
Attorney General

Iowa Attorney General winner?

$23,935 vol
Brenna Bird
Brenna Bird
Brenna Bird
1.44x
Nate Willems
Nate Willems
Nate Willems
2.73x
US Elections

California Lieutenant Governor winner?

$101,556 vol
Fiona Ma
1.04x
Gloria Romero
18.8x
US Elections

Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?

$12,158 vol
Missouri Amendment 3
1.76x
Virginia Question 1
1.03x
Senate

Midterms: Blue trickle?

$13,282 vol
Yes
1.07x
No
11.7x
Attorney General

Nevada Attorney General winner?

$3,335 vol
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
1.25x
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
4.51x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$19,070 vol
Yes
3.80x
No
1.25x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$21,676 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.42x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$10,818 vol
Ballot Measure 2
2.19x
Ballot Measure 3
1.09x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$3,597 vol
Question 5
2.40x
Question 3
2.52x
Attorney General

Michigan Attorney General winner?

$7,548 vol
Eli Savit
Eli Savit
Eli Savit
1.33x
Doug Lloyd
Doug Lloyd
Doug Lloyd
3.66x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$31,369 vol
Proposition 318
1.83x
Proposition 320
1.70x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$21,999 vol
Amendment 82
1.90x
Amendment 87
1.76x
Attorney General

Rhode Island Attorney General winner?

$762 vol
Kim Ahern
Kim Ahern
Kim Ahern
1.06x
Alan Gordon
Alan Gordon
Alan Gordon
18.8x
Attorney General

Texas Attorney General winner?

$13,184 vol
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
1.26x
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
4.13x