Traditionally, presidents are known to wait until the end of their time in office to make controversial pardons. This allows them to quickly ride off into the sunset and avoid the criticism and shame that comes from letting convicted felons out of jail.

But in case you haven't noticed, we're now living in the post-shame era. And on Inauguration Day 2025, when Donald Trump returns to the White House, he's likely to start cranking out controversial pardons on day one.

Luckily, Kalshi already has a Trump pardon market for his first 100 days in office. Here's a look at some of the bigger names on the list, a breakdown of their pros and cons, and their current odds of being pardoned.

^{This is an opinion, and is not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Sean John Combs (a.k.a. "Diddy," a.k.a. "The Diddler")

Crime: Diddy is awaiting trial for crimes including sex trafficking, racketeering, and his work on the 'Godzilla' soundtrack.

Reasons Trump might pardon:

• Trump and Combs were previously on friendly terms.
• Combs is a “good friend” of Elon Musk and an investor in Twitter (now X).
• Trump has a history of pardoning rappers, such as Lil Wayne and Kodak Black.

Reasons against:

• Trump might not want to be associated with an alleged sex offender (besides Matt Gaetz, Pete Hegseth, and himself).
• Diddy publicly endorsed Joe Biden in 2020.
• Combs' former bodyguard, Gene Deal, claims Trump “probably wouldn’t piss on Puff if he was on fire.”

Trader consensus: Traders currently price the chance of a pardon at 5%.

Joe Exotic (a.k.a. "The Tiger King")

Crime: The Tiger King is serving 21 years for hiring hitmen to kill rival Carole Baskin.

Reasons Trump might pardon:

• Exotic has openly supported Trump, and recently wrote him a letter pleading for mercy and asking for a cabinet spot.
• He appeals to Trump’s showmanship, aligning with Trump’s skill at grabbing headlines.
• His legal team claims newly discovered evidence could justify a retrial, providing Trump with a potential justification.

Reasons against:

• Exotic’s crimes include murder-for-hire, and are unlikely to generate public sympathy.
• Pardoning Exotic could draw unnecessary ridicule at a time when ridicule levels are already off the charts.
• The pandemic is over and we can go outside again, so no one cares about an animal-hoarding hick.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 15%.

Sam Bankman-Fried (a.k.a. "SBF")

Crime: Convicted of multiple fraud and conspiracy charges related to the collapse of his cryptocurrency exchange, FTX.

Reasons Trump might pardon:

• Some contend that Bankman-Fried's 25-year sentence was overly harsh. But I doubt anyone who lost money on FTX is complaining.
• Trump often does random, crazy stuff.

Reasons against:

• Bankman-Fried contributed nearly $40 million to Democratic causes during the 2022 U.S. elections. Trump probably doesn't like that.
• He undermined trust in the cryptocurrency industry, which is saying a lot.
• Unlike Ross Ulbricht, his crypto platform didn't sell cool stuff like drugs and guns.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at just 6%.

Ross Ulbricht (a.k.a. "Dread Pirate Roberts")

Crime: He is serving two life sentences for creating the Silk Road, a darknet marketplace used for illegal drug and weapon sales.

Reasons Trump might pardon:

• In a bid to win libertarians, Trump pledged to commute Ulbricht’s sentence on “day one.”
• Ulbricht’s case highlights sentencing disparities for non-violent offenses, aligning with Trump’s past pardons like Alice Marie Johnson.
• People love drugs and guns.

Reasons he might not:

• Pardoning Ulbricht could be seen as being soft on crime.
• His promise to commute the sentence does not necessarily mean he will grant a pardon.
• Reneging on a promise to libertarians will widely be seen as hilarious, and will have exactly zero consequences.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 74%.

Hunter Biden (a.k.a "Blow Biden")

Crime: Convicted of federal gun and tax charges in 2024.

Reasons for a pardon:

• Trump has publicly stated he is “open” to pardoning Hunter Biden.
• Granting a pardon could position Trump as a magnanimous leader, contrasting with Joe Biden’s refusal to pardon his own son.
• It would be a nice gesture, considering Hunter's important role in ruining his father's Presidency and getting Trump reelected.

Reasons against:

• After Trump’s constant rhetoric about the “Biden crime family," Trump’s base may view the move as a betrayal.
• President Biden may beat him to the punch before leaving office by granting the pardon himself.
• Trump may be too intimidated to act after seeing the leaked photos of Hunter Biden's wang.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 21%.

January 6th Capitol Rioters (a.k.a. "Y’all Qaeda")

Dozens of individuals are serving sentences for their roles in the January 6th Capitol riot, ranging from trespassing to seditious conspiracy.

Reasons Trump may pardon:

• Trump has repeatedly called January 6th defendants “patriots” and "political prisoners" which aligns with his broader narrative of a "weaponized" justice system.
• Some January 6th defendants have become cause célèbres among Trump supporters, creating political pressure to act.
• Trump may pardon low-level offenders while leaving sentences for more violent members in place.

Reasons against:

• Pardoning rioters could produce a strong backlash, especially for anyone who doesn't like watching cops get beat and pepper sprayed.
• A pardon risks reinforcing Trump’s association with the Capitol riot.
• Trump has a track record of promising action for political points but not always following through.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 80%.

Donald Trump (Self-Pardon)

Crime: Trump reenters the White House as the first sitting president with a criminal record for his "hush money" conviction. He was also facing various federal charges before being reelected.

Reasons Trump might pardon:

• A self-pardon would shield Trump from federal prosecution after his presidency.
• It aligns with his narrative of fighting a "weaponized" justice system.
• It would be the ultimate way to "own the libs."

Reasons against:

• The constitutionality of a self-pardon is untested and could lead to a major legal battle, with no guarantee it would be upheld.
• A self-pardon wouldn’t affect his recent conviction in New York, as presidential pardons only apply to federal crimes.
• Trump cannot face federal prosecution while in office, so he might delay the move until the end of his term. Also, he'll be 82 by then, and might just forget about it.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a self-pardon at 11%.

For more potential pardons, click here to check out our Trump pardon market.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}