If you’re the least bit interested in space exploration, you’re probably aware of the drama unfolding 250 miles above your head where two NASA astronauts are stranded aboard the International Space Station.

Due to technical problems with the new Boeing Starliner, the spacecraft’s 8-day maiden voyage has turned into an eight-month extended stay on the ISS.

But this isn’t just a story about two astronauts stuck in space. It’s a story about two aerospace companies on vastly different trajectories: Boeing and SpaceX.

While Boeing is busy stranding NASA astronauts in space, SpaceX is being called in to rescue them. It’s a major embarrassment to Boeing. It also perfectly encapsulates the difference between the two companies.

^{Remember: this is not financial advice. It's just the opinion of a guy getting paid to ramble on the Internet while using a pseudonym. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Boeing’s Descent

Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company and was once a proud symbol of American ingenuity.

But over the past decade, setbacks and scandals have left the company’s reputation in tatters, including:

• The Lion Air Flight 610 crash (2018)
• The Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crash (2019)
• The Alaska Air Flight 1282 door blowout (2024)

It’s gotten so bad that the company is being prosecuted by the Department of Justice, and large swaths of the Internet believe Boeing is murdering former employees turned whistleblowers.

But if you’re looking for even more evidence of the company’s fall from grace, just look at the recent Boeing-related markets that Kalshi has offered. They don’t exactly paint a picture of a company on the rise.

NASA lands on the moon?

First off, there’s Kalshi’s NASA Moon landing market.

NASA’s Artemis program was originally scheduled to return humans to the moon in 2025. But that timeframe has now been pushed back to late 2026. And even the updated schedule seems like a stretch to Kalshi traders, who put the odds of a 2026 return at just 18%.

The lack of faith is probably due in no small part to the fact that Boeing is heavily involved.

As the New York Times puts it, “the moonshot is inextricably tied to Boeing’s performance,” and Boeing’s performance as of late doesn't inspire much confidence.

In fact, NASA’s inspector general recently reported major concerns with Boeing’s work, including quality control issues that will likely delay the mission.

737 Max 9 un-grounded?

Next, there’s Kalshi’s market (now closed) on whether the Boeing 737 Max 9 would be ungrounded this year.

Granted, this market ultimately worked out in the company's favor, since its problem-plagued planes were, in fact, ungrounded after about a month.

But “ungrounded” is not a word you like to hear in conjunction with an ​​aerospace company since it implies you’ve been grounded.

And in order to be grounded, you usually have to do something bad, like forget to properly bolt a door onto an airplane so it won't fly off in midair.

New Boeing CEO this year?

Another recent Boeing market (also closed) was on whether the company would have a new CEO this year.

To be clear, this wasn’t a fun “When will he ride off into the sunset?” market, like we have for Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase.

This was more of a “When will he get run out of town on a rail as the Feds investigate his company for criminal fraud charges?” sort of thing.

As you can see from the chart, Boeing’s CEO David Calhoun did indeed depart in shame earlier this month, which might be good in the long term.

But the fact that this market exists should tell you all you need to know about the state of the company.

SpaceX’s ascent

On the other hand, our SpaceX related markets paint a very different picture of a company on the rise.

How Many Launches In 2024?

For starters, take a look at our “SpaceX Total Launches in 2024” market. Last year, the company launched a total of 98 rockets.

And while it’s only August, SpaceX has already completed 85 launches in 2024.

While the recent crash of a reusable booster may slow things down, our current market forecast predicts there will be more than 130 launches before the year is through, which is insanely impressive.

Starship’s 5th Launch?

Next up is the market for SpaceX’s 5th Starship launch.

Starship, the largest and most powerful vehicle to ever fly (on this planet, anyway), could launch as soon as September.

Traders currently think there's an 84% chance of a launch before September 15th.

SpaceX’s previously-mentioned booster crash could alter these timeframes. But if all goes according to plan, we’ll likely see another Starship launch in the next few weeks, as well as an ambitious attempt to “catch” the reusable booster as it lands using “chopsticks” attached to the launch tower.

Which brings us to….

Starship Mission to Mars by 2029?

Traders currently think there is a 20% chance that SpaceX will launch a Starship mission to Mars before 2030. And the way things are going, getting to Mars is more important than ever.

Of course, a 20% chance isn't great. But as mentioned earlier, traders give NASA’s Boeing-reliant moon mission only an 18% chance of reaching the lunar surface before 2027.

Granted, SpaceX has three more years. But considering the journey to the moon takes roughly three days, while a trip to Mars will take around nine months, the fact that these odds are in the same ballpark is nothing short of remarkable. 

To be clear, SpaceX probably won’t launch such a mission by 2029. And it’s completely possible that Boeing rights the ship and goes on to do great things with NASA in the near future. But as for now, as our markets show, the contrast between the two companies could not be more clear.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

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