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CFTC Decision on Election Markets Will be a Responsible Innovation Indicator

By Kalshi

Every crisis has its response. In the early 1930s, the Banking Act sought to right wrongs of the Great Depression and protect both households and the banking system. Seventy years later, the Global Financial Crisis prompted the Dodd-Frank Act. The unprecedented growth of the cryptocurrency market from nothing into many trillions has created a smaller boom in legislation to regulate the sector under either the SEC or CFTC. Now, more than ever, the American public relies on these organizations to make fair, impartial decisions that incorporate changes in the market to promote the public welfare.

Regulatory clarity that promotes responsible innovation is what distinguishes the United States from other competitors, supporting our deep and liquid financial markets. Throughout that process, regulators have cultivated innovation and American growth at each step, incorporating new rules to regulate the swaps market and springing into action even when Congress was stuck in partisan fights. Financial services is one of America’s largest exports and biggest industries–the result of continued hard work and design, rather than coasting on prior success.

A company will only last if it works with, not against, that legacy. Kalshi, an event contract-based exchange I co-founded, has always been such a company. We didn’t launch a single product for almost three years after the company was founded while we worked to gain the proper regulatory approvals. Our designation as a financial exchange was done on a bipartisan basis by all five Commissioners of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a testament to our commitment to innovating, deliberately and cautiously, in short: responsibly.

For the last year, Kalshi has been engaging with the Commission to list contracts on the outcomes of Congressional elections, with a decision expected by late October. Such contracts are squarely legal under the Commodities Exchange Act, and would provide significant benefits to the public by creating an election forecast pollsters would envy and allowing everyday Americans to hedge against election risk. Academics like Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller and Jason Furman, the Harvard Professor and President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, went on the record to support the contracts, along with members of industry like fellow exchange Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Contigrain, and a host of former CFTC and SEC officials, including three Commissioners. Many small businesses, human rights activists, individuals, and nonprofits also voiced their support.

The stakes of the upcoming decision by the CFTC are much more than just these contracts. The CFTC’s decision will send a strong signal about how broadly federal agencies interpret their authority and how they seek to engage with responsible innovators. No matter the CFTC’s decision, these contracts will be offered to Americans this election cycle on an unregulated platform no less. What signal does the agency want to send to entrepreneurs willing to spend twice as much time, effort, and resources to do things the right way?

This decision will be closely watched by entrepreneurs in all types of financial innovation from crypto to alternative assets.

The contracts in question are clearly legal, they have bi-partisan support, the public has heavily weighed in to support their public benefits, and years of deliberate market, political, and regulatory  engagement went into developing them with strong customer protections and enhanced market integrity measures. In short: everything is in the right place.

The public is ready, and watching.


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