Forecasting 2025: What Kalshi Traders Predict for the Year Ahead
By Terry OldrealNow that 2025 is officially underway, publications and pundits and dead women from Bulgaria have begun their annual tradition of polluting the Internet with predictions.
But the problem with all of these would-be prognosticators is that they face no real consequences for being wrong.
Last year, people spouted off about Threads overtaking X, ceasefires in Gaza and Ukraine, and even flying cars. And now, a year later, the only one calling them out for being wrong is some weirdo who writes a prediction market newsletter.
That's what sets Kalshi traders apart. They have actual skin in the game. They are rewarded for their accuracy, but more importantly, they are financially punished for their inaccuracy.
It's these financial consequences that act as a reality check, and taper down outlandish predictions about surprise manned moon missions.
With that in mind, let's take a look at what Kalshi traders are collectively forecasting for 2025. Maybe they won't get everything right. But at least you can take comfort in knowing they'll lose money if they are wrong.
This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.
Economics
Kalshi traders have a cautiously optimistic economic outlook for 2025. Markets suggest inflation will remain near manageable levels, and the economy is likely to sustain moderate growth. The Fed is also likely to continue cutting interest rates, albeit more gradually than last year.
That said, there’s still about a one-in-five chance of a recession, which could disrupt these projections. Even more alarming, there’s a nearly 20% chance that Costco will raise the price of its iconic Hot Dog Combo—a potential black swan event rivaling the economic chaos of COVID-19.
📉 How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?
📊 Inflation rate in 2025?
📈 GDP growth in 2025?
⚠️ Will there be a recession in 2025?
🌭 Will Costco raise its Hot Dog Combo price in 2025?
Trump/Politics
Last year, Trump made a lot of campaign promises to a lot of different people. Now comes the hard part: trying to keep them.
If you’re a fan of tariffs, government job cuts, or mass deportations, traders think 2025 might just be your year!
On the other hand, if you’re holding out hope for Federal abortion restrictions, vaccine revocations, or a Greenland acquisition, our markets show disappointment may be on the horizon.
📦 Large tariffs in Trump's first year?
✂️ Will Musk/Trump cut more than 100K government jobs?
⚖️ New abortion restrictions in Trump's first 100 days?
🚷 500,000 deportations this year?
👶 Will Trump take action to stop birthright citizenship?
📵 US bans TikTok before May?
🇬🇱 Will Trump buy Greenland?
📬 Will Trump privatize the post office?
💉 Will RFK revoke the polio vaccine?
👔 How many Cabinet members will Trump fire before 2026?
Science & Tech
Kalshi traders see 2025 shaping up to be an exciting year for science and technology. AI remains at the forefront, with ChatGPT favored as the year’s top model. Also, SpaceX is set for another blockbuster year, with forecasts nearing 170 launches.
That said, traders are less optimistic about OpenAI's chances of announcing an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) breakthrough in 2025. They're also less optimistic that Elon will achieve monthly Starship launches, especially since he's so busy polling X users about whether or not the US should invade the UK.
🤖 What will be the top AI model EOY?
🛰️ How many SpaceX launches this year?
⚛️ US grants license for new nuclear reactor?
🧠 Will OAI say they’ve achieved AGI this year?
💰 Will OpenAI raise the cost of ChatGPT before 2026?
🚀 Will SpaceX launch Starship in every month of 2025?
Crypto
After Crypto's blockbuster 2024, Kalshi traders are less certain about 2025. Just over 50% expect Trump to create a National Bitcoin Reserve, and less than half expect BTC to reach $150K this year (although traders are still expecting a positive year overall).
While the majority of traders are also bullish on the price of ETH in 2025, anyone holding out for Dogecoin to reach $1 is likely to be waiting for more than 365 days.
🏦 Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve?
📈 How high will Ethereum get?
🐕 Will Dogecoin hit $1?
💰 Will Bitcoin hit $150k?
🏢 Magnificent 7 company announces Bitcoin buy?
⚖️ Federal crypto regulation passes?
🇨🇳 Will Bitcoin be legalized in China?
Entertainment
Kalshi traders are once again betting on entertainment’s heavy hitters.
Taylor Swift and The Joe Rogan Experience dominate predictions, with strong odds of finishing the year as Spotify’s top artist and the top podcast, respectively.
In film and music, The Brutalist leads as the favorite for the Best Picture Oscar, while Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft is expected to win the Grammy for Album of the Year.
Perhaps the biggest surprise? Traders believe GTA-6 will finally make its long-awaited debut. But if you're looking to play it on a PlayStation 6, don't hold your breath. There's a better chance of a bird flu pandemic or a massive earthquake than there is of a PS6 announcement. But more on that in a moment!
🏆 Oscar for Best Picture?
🎵 Top Spotify Artist of the year?
- Current favorite: Taylor Swift - 81%
🎙️ Top Podcast of the year?
🎤 Album of the year Grammy?
🔫 Will GTA-6 be released this year?
🎮 Playstaion 6 announced?
Doomsday
Let’s end on a positive note. And by that, I mean positive for bird flu.
As mentioned above, traders price the chances of a new pandemic around one in four. Luckily, the current forecast for infections is below 1,000 cases. Chances of a major earthquake are near 50/50, and there’s also a one-in-four chance Trump recognizes Taiwan—a move that won't sit well with China. Meanwhile, there’s a 15% chance safety concerns could force at least one AI company to halt research.
Pandemics, earthquakes, AI threats: no wonder the Doomsday Clock is expected to edge closer to midnight.
Happy new year!
🐦 Bird flu pandemic before 2026?
🦠 Bird flu (H5N1) cases this year?
🇹🇼 Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
🌍 8.0 earthquake before 2026?
🔥 2025 be the hottest year ever?
🤖 Major AI company pauses research for safety concerns?
⏰ Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight this year?
Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Read next
