On October 22nd, we discussed Kamala Harris's narrowing but viable path to victory through the "Blue Wall" states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

On Thursday, that scenario showed new signs of life, as our markets indicated a Rust Belt rebound for the Vice President. Over the past two days, Harris has continued to show impressive gains.

^{This is an opinion, and is not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. Also, the author just found out that The Rizzler is not actually related to A.J. and Big Justice–and is shook from the news, so take everything he says with a grain of salt.}

For example, our traders now price her as a 63% favorite to win Michigan. That's a 13% gain since October 29th.

She is also now priced as the narrow favorite in Wisconsin, with a 52% chance of winning. That's a gain of 9% since Trump peaked on October 29th.

However, as we mentioned on Thursday, our traders paint a less rosy picture for Harris in Pennsylvania, where Trump is still the narrow favorite at 55%.

Yes, 55% is basically a coin flip. But as the chart below demonstrates, Harris traders better pray that the coin flips her way.

Traders currently think that the winner of Pennsylvania has an 88% chance of winning the entire election.

Of course, Harris might pull off an upset in another swing state such as North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, or Nevada. But Trump is favored in all four of those states.

To make matter worse for Harris, if she comes up short in Pennsylvania, one upset won't be enough. She'll need at least two to offset PA's 19 electoral votes.

Yes, it can happen, just like Biden unexpectedly won Arizona and Georgia in 2020, or Trump broke the "Blue Wall" in 2016. But clearly traders think the Keystone State is still the key.

On a side note, there's something odd about North Carolina. Our markets indicate it's one of Trump's strongest swing states. But the former president is holding four events there between now and Tuesday, more than any other state. He also has a stop planned in Virginia.

Why?

Is his campaign worried about an upset in the Tar Heel State? I have no idea, but it might be worth watching this market as Tuesday approaches.

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}