Note: As of today (10/24/24), Kamala Harris has a 40% chance of winning. We’re talking about a slightly biased coin flip. Also, 12 days is a very long time and we expect odds to keep changing.

Since Kalshi started offering election markets in early October, the site has seen tremendous growth.

Predictably, we’ve also seen an influx of complaints on social media about our markets being inaccurate and manipulated by the likes of Elon Musk and the ghost of Rush Limbaugh.

To be fair, if Harris were in the lead, I’m sure we’d see just as many whining MAGAs, if not more, accusing us of running our platform from Epstein Island with funding from George Soros.

Regardless, if you’re complaining that Harris’s prices are wrong, you’re missing the point!

For traders, a mispriced market is a good thing!

^{This is an opinion, and is not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Mispriced markets are a golden opportunity!

If you really think the markets are off in Trump’s favor, why are you wasting time whining about it on X?

Finding a mispriced market is like finding an undervalued stock!

These markets are designed to reward people who accurately predict the outcome of an event, and financially punish traders who are wrong.

So if you think the Harris price is inaccurate, stop running your mouth, and make a trade!

Talk is cheap. Being right gets you paid.

It’s like a poll you can punish for being wrong!

When you see a sleazy pundit or biased poll, all you can do is throw up your hands and scream at your screen.

Any asshole can jump on social media, call himself an expert, and tell people what they want to hear. People make millions of dollars doing this. Some make billions. Hell, some become president!

And when they are proven wrong, more often than not, they make up an excuse, and move on to the next grift.

The same is true of inaccurate polls. When they are wrong, there is usually no real accountability. The pollsters simply adjust (or don’t) and move on to the next election cycle.

There’s no accountability.

But with prediction markets, accountability is baked in. If you are wrong, there are real consequences.

And that’s what so many detractors don’t seem to realize.

Stop complaining. Start trading.

Four years ago, when Trump contested the election, prediction markets greatly overreacted. At one point in December, a Trump win in Arizona was still trading for $0.17 instead of $0.01.

Yes, you read that right. A month after the election took place, the markets priced Trump’s chances to win a state he had already lost at nearly 20 cents. Now THAT was a mispriced market.

Did I go on social media and whine about it? No!

Like a lot of other traders, I dumped thousands of dollars into these post-election markets. Then I waited a month for reality to slap the Trump traders in the face, and made a modest profit.

Four years later, Harris “Yes” contracts are currently trading at $0.40, which will pay out $1 if she wins. That’s a $0.60 profit on every contract!

If you honestly think that Harris is underpriced, now is your time to turn $0.40 into $1, $40 into $100, or $400 into $1,000.

And more importantly, it’s your chance to hold others accountable for peddling and/or believing inaccurate information. Unless it turns out you’re the one who’s wrong, in which case you'll be the one facing consequences.

Either way, it’s time to put up or shut up.

Best of luck.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}