In less than 48 hours, 2024 will come to a close, and what a year it’s been!

From historic milestones like the release of Taylor Swift’s latest album, to more frivolous moments like the Presidential election, Kalshi was there with markets that covered it all. 

But rather than posting yet another boring retrospective on the year that was, let’s look forward toward the wonders that might await us in 2025—like a deadly Bird Flu Pandemic.

^{This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.}

Over the last several years, H5N1 has killed millions of birds and hundreds of cattle. More recently, it’s been making the jump to humans, mainly among farm employees working in close proximity to infected animals.

However, last week, the CDC discovered a patient with a mutated strain that is more transmissible and better adapted to bind to human airways.

Luckily, this particular strain is thought to have mutated over the course of the patient’s illness, and is unlikely to have been passed on.

However, many experts, including former CDC director Robert Redfield, think it’s still only a matter of time before we see a Bird Flu Pandemic.

Is 2025 that time? Here’s what Kalshi traders are currently predicting.

The good news...

First, some good news. Kalshi traders think there’s only a 1% chance of a Bird Flu Pandemic happening in 2024!

The bad news...

Now, the bad news. It’s December 30th, the year is almost over, and the outlook for 2025 isn’t as rosy.

Currently, our market prices the chance of a 2025 Bird Flu Pandemic at 34%, or slightly better than a one in three chance.

To put that in perspective, next year, we’re more likely to see a pandemic from a virus with a 25% to 50% mortality rate than we are to hear an announcement about PlayStation 6.

What a crock.

General pandemic/Public health emergency

Chances of bird flu being declared a public health emergency are also near one in three…

…as are chances of a general pandemic that isn’t specific to bird flu (don’t forget our old friend Monkeypox!).

Travel issues...

And if you have vacation plans in 2025, you might want to consider travel insurance (or better yet… from my wallet’s perspective… use Kalshi to hedge the cost of your trip).

Our traders think there’s a 44% chance that the CDC will recommend delaying non-essential travel in 2025 due to the bird flu.

Luckily, the Democrats lost the election, so your family’s annual trip to Yakov's Theatre in Branson, MO, will still be considered essential. 

How many bird flu cases in 2025?

In terms of how many cases we’ll see in 2025, there is currently a 24% chance we’ll hit over 100,000 infections in the US, and a 19% chance we’ll see over 1 million.

That said, let’s end the year on a positive (H5N1-negative) note, and look at the upside.

While a 19% chance of over 1 million cases certainly seems alarming, our overall market forecast currently predicts that we’ll max out at under 2,000 infections.

And while a one-in-three chance of an H5N1 pandemic is certainly too close for comfort, there’s still a 66% chance that Bird Flu Pandemic does not occur in 2025.

So maybe it’s not time to panic buy toilet paper and hand sanitizer just yet.

Instead, use the end of 2024 to focus on more important things, like sticking to your New Year’s resolutions, spending time with friends and family, and trying to figure out why there’s a 69% chance the Doomsday clock will move closer to midnight in 2025.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}