The upcoming presidential inauguration marks Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States. As the event draws closer, Kalshi’s event contracts allows traders to place bets on who will attend the inauguration.

This unique market lets you predict which high-profile political figures, international leaders, and public personalities will attend the ceremony. In this guide, we’ll break down how this event contract works, highlight key figures to watch, and share strategies for trading on this historic event.

Understanding the inauguration market

Kalshi’s inauguration event contract lets participants place bets on who will attend Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025. The market allows traders to leverage their knowledge of U.S. politics, social dynamics, and media coverage to make informed trades. Here’s how the market works:

Contract pricing

Each contract in the market represents an individual attendee and reflects the market’s collective belief in the likelihood of that person being present at the inauguration. Contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, where the price indicates the perceived probability of attendance.

For example:

• If a contract for Mark Zuckerberg is trading at 65¢, it suggests the market believes there’s a 65% chance he’ll attend the inauguration.
• If a contract for Kamala Harris is trading at 20¢, the collective market estimates only a 20% likelihood of her attendance.

How YES and NO contracts work

In Kalshi markets, every trade involves YES or NO contracts, which are always in pairs. For instance:

• If you bet YES that Barack Obama will attend the inauguration, Kalshi will match you with another trader who bets NO on the same outcome. One of you will receive a YES contract, the other a NO contract, and you’ll pay $1 in total (excluding any trading fees).

This pairing system ensures that every trade is balanced, creating a dynamic marketplace where probabilities adjust based on demand for YES or NO positions.

Resolution criteria

Kalshi applies transparent rules to determine whether a person’s attendance at the inauguration is resolved as a binary YES or NO contract:

• A contract resolves to YES if the person is verified to be present at the January 20th ceremony. The outcomes of this contract will be verified by The New York Times. If the person you predicted does not attend the inauguration, the contract will be resolved to NO.

This clear and consistent resolution process ensures fair outcomes for all market participants.

Payouts

Kalshi’s binary contracts offer straightforward and transparent payouts:

• A YES contract pays $1 if the individual attends the inauguration.
• A NO contract pays $1 if the individual does not attend the inauguration.

Here’s how it works in practice:

• If you purchase a YES contract for 40¢ on Tom Brady and he attends the inauguration, you’ll earn a 60¢ profit (excluding fees) since the contract pays out $1. However, if Brady does not attend, your YES contract expires worthless, resulting in a 40¢ loss—your initial investment.
• The same applies to NO contracts: if you buy a NO contract on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and she does not attend, you’ll receive the $1 payout. Your NO contract will become worthless if she does attend the ceremony.

This straightforward payout structure allows traders to easily calculate potential profits and losses, making planning your trades and managing risk simple.

Key figures in the inauguration market

Kalshi's inauguration market includes many attendee options for traders, from prominent political figures to business leaders and international personalities. Below is a breakdown of the key individuals listed in the market:

Political leaders and figures

• Joe Biden: The sitting U.S. president before Donald Trump’s second term.

• Kamala Harris: The Vice President under Biden and the Democratic presidential nominee who ran against Trump in 2024.

• Nancy Pelosi: Former Speaker of the House and a prominent Democratic figure.

• Chuck Schumer: Senate Majority Leader and key Democratic leader in Congress.

• Barack Obama and Michelle Obama: The former President and First Lady representing the Democratic Party’s past leadership.

• Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton: The former Secretary of State and President, representing high-profile Democratic leadership.

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC): A rising Democratic star and representative of the party's progressive wing.

Trump allies and key figures

• Rudy Giuliani: A long-time Trump ally and former New York City mayor.

• Elon Musk: A close confidant of Trump and an influential business leader, Musk is frequently described as Trump’s “right-hand man.”

Business and technology leaders

• Mark Zuckerberg: CEO of Meta and one of the most influential figures in tech.

• Jeff Bezos: Founder of Amazon and a major player in global business.

• Brad Garlinghouse: CEO of Ripple and a key figure in cryptocurrency and blockchain.

Celebrities and public figures

• Tom Brady: The legendary NFL quarterback with past public ties to Trump.

• Jimmy Donaldson (MrBeast): A prominent YouTube personality and one of the most-followed influencers in the world.

International leaders

• Giorgia Meloni: Prime Minister of Italy and a political ally with a similar nationalist ideology.

• Benjamin Netanyahu: The Israeli Prime Minister is known for his close ties to Trump during his presidency.

• Javier Milei: The President of Argentina and a self-proclaimed Trump admirer.

• Volodymyr Zelensky: The President of Ukraine, representing a key geopolitical relationship.

• Vladimir Putin: President of Russia and a controversial figure on the global stage.

• Xi Jinping: President of China, representing one of the U.S.’s most significant geopolitical relationships.

This market provides a range of possibilities, from highly likely attendees like Rudy Giuliani and Giorgia Meloni to unexpected wildcards like Xi Jinping, Tom Brady, or Vladimir Putin. Political dynamics, media optics, and individual priorities will all play a role in determining who attends this historic event. Tracking announcements, statements, and media coverage in the weeks leading up to January 20, 2025, will be critical for making informed trades in this market.

Factors that could influence attendance

Attending Donald Trump’s inauguration will depend on various factors, including political dynamics, media attention, and logistical concerns. Trump allies like Musk, Giuliani, and Meloni are more likely to attend as a show of support. At the same time, past presidents like Biden, Obama, and former First Lady Michelle Obama—who traditionally attend inaugurations—may choose to decline at the last minute due to their contentious relationship with Trump. Similarly, prominent Democratic leaders like Harris, AOC, and Pelosi may opt out for the same reasons. International leaders such as Netanyahu, Meloni, or Milei may attend depending on diplomatic priorities and schedules.

Media coverage will also play a key role, as public figures like Bezos, Brady, or Zuckerberg may leverage the event for publicity or to align themselves with the incoming administration. Conversely, concerns over optics may deter attendance from more neutral or critical figures.

Finally, security and logistics could influence decisions. High-profile individuals such as Zelensky or Jinping may avoid the event due to heightened security concerns, especially in the current geopolitical climate.

Strategies for trading this market

A clear strategy is essential when trading on Kalshi’s inauguration attendee market. Whether you’re betting YES (an individual will attend) or “NO (an individual will not attend), here are actionable tips to guide your decisions:

If you’re betting YES (a specific individual will attend):

1. Monitor public statements: Announcements or attendance confirmations can quickly increase a contract’s price. Act early if you spot these signals before the broader market reacts.
2. Focus on Trump allies: Family members, close associates like Rudy Giuliani, and political allies like Giorgia Meloni are more likely to attend. YES contracts for these figures may offer higher payout probabilities.
3. Follow social media activity: Posts or hints from politicians or high-profile celebrities can provide early insights. Social media speculation often drives market momentum.

If you’re betting NO (a specific individual will not attend):

1. Evaluate relationships: Individuals with strained relationships with Trump, such as Nancy Pelosi or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are less likely to attend. NO contracts for these figures could be safer bets.
2. Watch for absence announcements: Some figures may publicly decline invitations or confirm their decision not to attend. These moments are substantial opportunities to secure NO positions before prices adjust.
3. Focus on longshots: Wildcards like international leaders (e.g., Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping) and celebrities (e.g., Tom Brady or MrBeast) often have a lower probability of attending. NO contracts for these figures could provide attractive returns.

By staying alert to official announcements, evaluating political relationships, and closely tracking social media activity and news coverage, traders can position themselves more strategically and increase their chances of success when betting on who will attend the inauguration.

Tips for traders

• Be prepared to pivot positions
  • One of the most valuable features of Kalshi’s platform is the ability to sell positions before they resolve, enabling traders to adapt their strategies as new information comes to light. For example, if breaking news or an announcement makes a contract you hold suddenly more (or less) likely to resolve in your favor, you can exit early to lock in profits or minimize losses. This flexibility allows you to stay agile and respond quickly in a fast-changing market.
• Diversify to reduce risk
  • To lower risk and increase your chances of success, consider spreading your bets across related inauguration markets. Rather than focusing on a single contract, you can also explore related markets, such as who will sing the national anthem, who will speak during Trump’s inauguration ceremony, or how many people will view the event. Trading across multiple related markets helps build a balanced strategy, leveraging Kalshi’s event-based predictions to reduce risk while maximizing profit potential.

Steps to bet on inauguration

Step 1: Create an account

Getting started is quick and straightforward. Visit Kalshi.com/sign-up to set up your account.

Step 2: Fund your account

Deposit funds into your Kalshi account to start trading. Consider funding your account as soon as you sign up to be ready for trading opportunities.

Step 3: Verify your identity

All traders must verify their identity by submitting basic information, including their SSN and a valid U.S. photo ID. This step ensures that Kalshi remains a secure and compliant trading platform.

Step 4: Place your first trade

Once your account is verified and funded, you’re ready to trade! Kalshi also offers related event contracts such as Which companies will donate to Trump's inauguration? or Will Dogecoin hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? These markets give traders multiple opportunities to capitalize on their Inauguration opinions and diversify their strategies. Dive into Kalshi’s wide selection of event contracts, evaluate the options, analyze the data, and make your predictions by placing YES or NO bets.

Recap: trading on the inauguration

Kalshi's inauguration attendee market allows traders to leverage their knowledge of political dynamics, media narratives, and individual motivations. This market offers diverse trading opportunities featuring a mix of political figures, business leaders, and international personalities.

To trade successfully, staying informed is essential. Monitor public statements, social media activity, and news reports to spot clues about potential attendance. On Kalshi’s platform, you can buy YES or NO contracts and adjust your position early if new developments shift the odds.

Whether betting on expected attendees like Rudy Giuliani and Elon Musk or speculating on wildcards like Tom Brady or Vladimir Putin, thorough research and quick decision-making are critical. As the January 20, 2025, inauguration draws closer, staying on top of announcements and breaking news will help you make smart and timely trades.

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}

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