Highlights

1. This week: Evaluating Elon Musk's Tesla predictions
2. Our favorite new markets

This week...

Tesla is having a horrible 2024.

But luckily, Elon Musk knows just what to do when the walls are closing in: make bold predictions about fantastical new products!

And that's what he did on Tesla's Q1 earnings call. His list of amazing new wunderwaffen includes:

• New affordable EV models by late 2024 or 2025
• Self-driving Robotaxis by August 2024
• Sentient humanoid robots by late 2025

After all, there’s no need to worry about slumping sales or BYD when an army of “sentient humanoid robots” is on the way, and they're riding in a fleet of low-cost, self-driving Tesla robotaxis.

For the moment, the hype seems to have worked. Despite the dismal earnings report, Tesla’s stock shot up after the call.

But there’s just one problem: Elon is very bad at predicting things, at least in terms of timing.

Countless lists of Elon’s inaccurate predictions have already been compiled.

Musk’s official biographer, Walter Isaacson, says the billionaire is "always wrong by two or three times" on his timeframes.

And to his credit, even Musk himself has acknowledged this issue, albeit in a backhanded way:

"What tends to happen is I'll make some best guess and then in five years there will be some jerk that writes some article: 'Elon said this would happen and it didn't happen! He's a liar and a fool!'" Musk said."The point is not that it was a few years late, but that it happened at all.”

He has a point.

Elon Musk is a billionaire who builds spaceships. I’m "some jerk" who drives a 2015 Kia Soul, and I lost all my money on NFTs.

So who am I to nitpick this great man's predictions?

Well, I’m the guy who writes A PREDICTION MARKET NEWSLETTER! It’s literally my job to write about predictions, so if any jerk should get a pass, it’s me.

Besides, these predictions weren’t made off the cuff while smoking a joint on the Joe Rogan podcast. They’re from a corporate earnings call, and people are investing based on the headlines they generate. They deserve scrutiny.

And for the record, I'm still holding TSLA, so I hope his predictions come true.

So let’s take a look at what Kalshi traders think about Elon’s predictions for Tesla.

Prediction 1: RoboTaxi revealed by August 8th

During the Q1 earnings call, Elon reiterated his claim that Tesla would unveil its Robotaxi later this year.

“We will be showcasing our purpose-built robotaxi or Cybercab in August.”

And out of all his predictions, Kalshi traders think this one has the best chance of being correct.

That said, considering “showcasing” and “unveiling” are pretty vague terms, the fact that we’re only at 64% doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. Chances of an actual public release anytime soon are much lower.

Prediction 2: New affordable EV models (late 2024 or 2025)

Less than a month ago, Reuters ran a story claiming Tesla was moving away from its affordable EV project, previously known as the Model 2, in order to focus on self-driving robotaxis.

But after the Q1 earnings call, it does appear that affordable models are moving forward.

“We've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models… so, we expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year. These new vehicles, including more affordable models...”

But Kalshi traders don’t have much faith in the late 2024-early 2025 timeframe.

They’re pricing in the chances at 32% and 46%, respectively.

That said, it’s worth noting that chances were at 16% and 34% before earnings, so it’s trending in the right direction.

Prediction 3: Sentient humanoid robots (late 2025)

According to Elon, Tesla’s highly-anticipated ‘Optimus’ robot is making great strides, and could ‘be more valuable than everything else combined.’

“We are able to do simple factory tasks or at least, I should say, factory tasks in the lab. We do think we will have Optimus in limited production in the natural factory itself, doing useful tasks before the end of this year. And then I think we may be able to sell it externally by the end of next year."

In all fairness, Musk did add that his timeframes for Optimus were, “just guesses.”

And it seems like Kalshi traders agree with that part.

According to our Optimus market, the chances of a Tesla robot going on sale before 2026 are just 32%.

And in terms of it being sentient… well, that’s a topic for another market.

Our favorite new markets

Columbia University protests

Earlier this year, the presidents of both Harvard (Claudine Gay) and Penn (Elizabeth Magill) were forced to resign due to their tone deaf response to on campus protests about the war in the Gaza Strip.

Now, Columbia University President Minouche Shafik is having her turn in the hot seat.

Although her recent testimony before congress received much less backlash than Gay and Magill, calls for her resignation are increasing, with House Speaker Mike Johnson being the latest entry. Can Shafik weather the storm?

Bill Belichick Benched?

Love him or hate him, Bill Belichick is arguably the most successful coach in NFL history.

He is the only coach with six Super Bowl rings, and he’s tied with NFL legends George Halas and Curly Lambeau, whose six championships predate the Super Bowl. He’s also within striking distance of Don Shula's all-time coaching win record.

So why doesn’t he have a new job, yet?

Well, some people think that there just wasn’t a good fit this season.

Others think he wasn’t hired because he has a reputation of being a huge as***le (although that’s true of a lot of coaches who don’t have six rings).

Will he be back before the 2025 season?

Tasty Trading on the James Beard Awards

Calling all foodies (as well as people who like food but have too much self-respect to refer to themselves as “foodies”).

It’s time for 2024 James Beard Awards (aka the restaurant industry Oscars).

For those who don’t know, the mission of the James Beard Awards is to “recognize exceptional talent and achievement in the culinary arts, hospitality, media, and broader food system.”

And our mission here at Kalshi is to let you make money off that.

So microwave yourself another burrito, and check out our markets for Outstanding Chef, Outstanding Restaurant, and Best New Restaurant.

Disclosure

Kalshi’s upcoming new markets and features are not guaranteed to be live. These previews are meant to provide traders and interested observers with a sneak peek into what Kalshi is building, but they are not a promise that they will eventually be live.

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author(s). Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your particular circumstances, investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any described. Any research views expressed represent those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of Kalshi or its affiliates. Any demonstrative examples are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. While Kalshi strives to provide accurate and timely information, there may be inadvertent inaccuracies, errors and omissions, for which we apologize and expressly disclaim any liability. We reserve the right to make changes and corrections at any time, without notice. The content is provided on an "AS IS," "AS AVAILABLE" Basis. Any information denoting past or historical performance is not indicative of future performance and no reliance shall be placed on such information.