Highlights

1. The week ahead: The March Jobs Report - Don't trust the 'experts'
2. Our favorite new markets: SpaceX launches, RT scores, crypto crashes
3. New Features: SIG market makers = more liquidity

The week ahead...

March jobs numbers - Don't trust the 'experts'

The March Jobs Report will be released this Friday, March 5th, at 8:30 am ET. And according to the “experts,” we can expect between 150,000 to 200,000 jobs added.

• Citi: 100,000 - 150,000
• Bloomberg: 200,000
• WSJ: 200,000
• BofA: (Michael Gapen) 200,000

But based on previous months, these estimates are probably as accurate as your grandma's Facebook posts.

So far in 2024, most analysts have really missed the mark, and job growth has consistently beat Wall Street’s expectations.

That's why you’re much better off checking Kalshi’s 'Jobs numbers' market than listening to the pundits.

While Kalshi’s market forecasts have also come in low, they've consistently been much closer than most (if not all) the experts.

For example, take a look at February:

• Wall Street Consensus: 198,000
• Kalshi Market Forecast: 223,000
• Actual Report: 275,000 jobs added

So, what does Kalshi think is in store for the March Jobs Report?

As of now, the forecast calls for 214,000 jobs added, which is significantly higher than most analysts.

But unlike analysts' forecasts and ‘consensus’ surveys, Kalshi’s markets generate a distribution of all possible outcomes based on the trading.

So aside from our forecast of 214,000, we can also look at variance and error margin, which provides a more accurate and more nuanced view.

As you can see, our consensus forecast might be 214,000, but our traders are pricing in a 35% chance that 250,000 jobs will be added.

They’re also saying there’s nearly a 20% chance of job growth above 300,000!

That might sound outlandish based on the other forecasts. But just two months ago, when January's report absolutely demolished expert expectations with 353,000 jobs added, some Kalshi traders made bank.

In fact, one brilliant trader absolutely nailed it, and turned about $500 into over $9,000! How's that for ROI?

Our favorite markets...

SpaceX launches this year?

Elon Musk is having a rough year, at least when it comes to Tesla and Twitter. But the world’s second richest man has at least one thing going for him (beyond his unimaginable wealth and fame): rocket ships!

SpaceX rocket launches are still going strong, and the company is well on its way to surpassing last year’s total of 98 successful launches. Where will 2024’s total end up? Check out our market, and make your own prediction.

‘The First Omen’ Rotten Tomatoes market
For the second week in a row, our Rotten Tomatoes markets were a big hit, and our ‘Godzilla X Kong’ market did over $100,000 in volume. Will this week’s market for ‘The First Omen’ prove to be as popular? Click here to find out.

Crypto crash?
Earlier this week, the price of Bitcoin dropped over $5,000 in 24 hours. But just because BTC is falling doesn’t mean your net worth has to fall with it. You can use our yearly, monthly and daily Bitcoin price markets to hedge against drops. Or, if you think it’s only a temporary setback, you can use them as a chance to buy the dip.

Liquidity is (finally) here…

The goal of a prediction market like Kalshi is to allow you to take your view of the world and turn it directly and precisely into a trade… at least in theory.

In practice, a lack of liquidity often bursts this bubble, resulting in low volume markets with prices that aren’t worth the risk or hassle.

After all, offering markets that cover a wide range of exciting, relevant topics is great. But if you're unable to enter or exit a trade, what's the point?

However, now that Susquehanna International Group (SIG) has onboarded as a market maker, low liquidity is about to become a thing of the past.

SIG is one of the largest and most respected market makers on the planet, and they’ve set up a dedicated trading division just for prediction markets on Kalshi.

Their team will be providing close to 30x the liquidity that was previously available in select markets, so you can enter and exit large positions freely, without much price slippage, at any point of the day (from 9am to 5pm ET).

As a result, in some of Kalshi’s major markets, you can now make trades for six-to seven figures without issue. And they will be expanding over time to cover more and more markets.

In the past, the two biggest obstacles for prediction markets have been legal regulations and liquidity fears. But Kalshi has managed to solve both of those problems, which means the future looks bright.

Learn more here.

Disclosure

Kalshi’s upcoming new markets and features are not guaranteed to be live. These previews are meant to provide traders and interested observers with a sneak peek into what Kalshi is building, but they are not a promise that they will eventually be live.

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author(s). Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your particular circumstances, investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any described. Any research views expressed represent those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of Kalshi or its affiliates. Any demonstrative examples are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. While Kalshi strives to provide accurate and timely information, there may be inadvertent inaccuracies, errors and omissions, for which we apologize and expressly disclaim any liability. We reserve the right to make changes and corrections at any time, without notice. The content is provided on an "AS IS," "AS AVAILABLE" Basis. Any information denoting past or historical performance is not indicative of future performance and no reliance shall be placed on such information.