The Covid-19 pandemic polarized our already divided nation, perhaps beyond the point of repair. But it also had a negative effect on important things, like the movie industry.

In 2020, domestic box office grosses dropped by more than 80%, and have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels. But after years of struggling, 2023's Barbenheimer seemed like it might be a turning point.

(The Oscars air Sunday, March 2, at 7:00 PM ET. Click here for all of Kalshi's 2025 Oscar markets.)

Wikipedia describes it as a "cultural phenomenon." That's a bit much for a marketing ploy that produced a lot of memes. But it was a fun, silly way to waste some time while we wait for bird flu to finish the job. And some of that fun spilled over, at least a bit, into that last year's Oscars.

Unfortunately, this year's crop of films doesn't lend itself to the same sort of merriment.

For example, when I searched for Brutalist memes, I found this.

That's funny, but unrelated.

At the end of the day, this year just doesn't have the same buzz.

But you know what will make this year's Oscars more exciting? Kalshi's Oscar markets!

With over 30 subjects to choose from, there's no better way to turn a tedious award show into something that's actually entertaining.

Sure, you could sit through three hours of Hollywood navel-gazing without making a trade. Just like you could microwave a wagyu steak. But that doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Let's take a look at some of the Oscar markets Kalshi has to offer, and at what Kalshi traders are currently predicting for Sunday's ceremony.

Best Picture Odds

The closest thing to Barbenheimer-style hype at this year's Oscars is the supposed rivalry between Wicked and Emilia Perez. And it's clearly working, since Emilia Perez's odds of winning are at a solid 1%, while Wicked is close behind at... >1%.

Never mind.

In early 2025, The Brutalist was the Best Picture favorite, and was trading as high as 60%. But after failing to win Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards on February 7th, its odds have fallen into the low teens. Currently, Anora is the odds-on favorite with a 64% chance of winning, while Conclave maintains around a 1 in 5 chance of winning.

Best Actor Odds

Last weekend at the SAG Awards, Timothée Chalamet managed to pull off an upset by beating out Adrien Brody for Best Actor. But when it comes to the Oscars, Kalshi traders don't think lightning will strike twice.

Currently, Chalamet has a 31% chance of bringing home the Oscar for Best Actor for A Complete Unknown, while Adrien Brody's performance in The Brutalist remains the favorite at 65%.

Best Actress Odds

I'm certainly not an expert, so take what I'm about to say (which is not financial advice) with a grain of salt. But if there's one thing I've learned from my many years of watching this crap, it's that the Academy loves to give awards to random actors they've ignored for years.

Back in the 1990s, the idea of Demi Moore winning an Oscar would have been laughable. The same was true of recent Oscar winners Brendan Fraser and Ke Huy Quan.

The point being, if you hang around Hollywood for 30 years without ODing or committing a major sex crime, and you somehow manage to get nominated for an Oscar, your odds of winning are pretty damn good, which explains why Moore's odds for her role in The Substance are currently 64%.

That said, if there's one thing Hollywood loves more than a good redemption arc, it's prostitutes. So don't rule out Mikey Madison's performance as an escort in Anora. There's a 29% chance she brings home a statue.

Best Director Odds

When it comes to Best Supporting Actor/Actress category, Kalshi traders aren't pricing a very competitive race, with Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Perez) favored to win each category with odds of 94% and 90% respectively. So let's move on to the Best Director award, which is a little more competitive.

Although there are five nominees, the market shows only a two-man race between Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist).

Earlier in the month, Corbet was the favorite with odds of over 80%. But a failure to secure a Best Director win at the Critics Choice Awards on February 7th, followed by Baker's win at the Directors Guild Awards the very next day, upended the race.

Now, Baker is the clear favorite with odds of 63%, while Corbet's odds hover in the mid-30s.

Most Oscar Wins

Last year, Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer dominated the Academy Awards, winning a total of seven categories, including Best Picture.

But according to our markets, one film isn't likely to dominate this year's ceremony. In fact, our traders currently think the most likely result is a tie between The Brutalist and Anora. That scenario has a 34% chance.

The next most likely outcome is for Anora to win the most awards outright. Odds of that happening are at 32%. And the film is currently forecast to win 2.8 awards.

Last but not least (well...possibly least) is The Brutalist, which has a 22% chance of winning the most Oscars, and is currently forecast to win 3 awards.

Wait. Why are Anora’s chances of winning the most Oscars higher than The Brutalist’s despite The Brutalist being forecast for more wins?

Look, it's Friday, and I just work here. Call it a market inefficiency. Call it irrational exuberance. Call it whatever you want—but I’m leaving.

Besides, maybe you can figure out what's going on and turn it into a winning trade (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)!

Click here for all our Oscar markets, and enjoy the show.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerry
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}