An effective altruist, a rationalist, and an AI-obsessed autodidact walk up to a bar.

No, this isn’t a joke setup. It’s just a typical scene at Manifest, a three-day festival in Berkeley, California, covering all things related to forecasting and prediction markets.

Manifest is the brainchild of the impressively innovative founders of Manifold Markets. I’ve heard it described as “Woodstock for dorks,” but with fewer drugs. That said, this year I met an ayahuasca-loving crypto bro from India who might take issue with that last part.

For the second year in a row, Kalshi was a sponsor of the event, and for the second year in a row, I was lucky enough to attend, so I should have known what to expect. But at Manifest, you never quite know what to expect.

The crowd is a mix of effective altruists and degenerate gamblers, tech founders and A.I. doomers, random furries and political forecasters. In other words, it's a very weird mix of some very weird people (and I mean that in the best way possible), all of whom believe in the power and potential of prediction markets.

This year’s speakers included political polling guru Nate Silver, economist and prediction-market pioneer Robin Hanson, and, most importantly, Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, among many others.

But beyond the headliners, there were smaller, more intimate discussions with speakers specializing in an incredibly wide range of topics: The Politics of Election Market Bans (Maxim Lott & Jeremiah Johnson), Free Speech and Prediction Markets (Pratik Chougule), and, of course, AI Waifus Are A War Crime (Stephen Weeks), just to name a few.

Despite the fact that the number of attendees doubled year-over-year, it still felt like the same intimate festival from the year before. It’s rare to attend something that is simultaneously laid-back and well-run, but somehow Saul Munn, Rachel Weinberg, Austin Chen, and the rest of the team pulled it off.

A big part of Manifest’s charm is probably related to the venue: Lighthaven. It’s an event space that feels more like someone’s kitchen, living room, and backyard than a conference center.

So if you’re interested in prediction markets (why else would you be reading this?), and you’d like the opportunity to randomly chat with a grown man in unicorn pajamas and one of the founders of Substack in the same day, this is the festival for you.

Be sure to keep an eye out for details on Manifest 2025.

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Remember: this is not financial advice. Do your own research, and invest at your own risk.

Musk out at Tesla?

June 6th was the 80th anniversary of D-Day. But today, June 13th, is D-Day for Elon Musk. After weeks of lobbying, voting has ended, and Tesla’s shareholder meeting is set to begin. At stake is Musk’s $56-billion compensation package as well as the company's reincorporation in Texas, from Delaware.

Norges Bank, Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, has come out against the deal. Other institutional investors, including ARK and Baron Capital, have come out in favor. But the final outcome may come down to retail investors, who Musk and the board have worked tirelessly to sway.

But there may be more at stake than Elon’s compensation. Some analysts worry that if the package isn’t approved, the world’s wealthiest man could leave the electric car company altogether to focus on other projects such as X and SpaceX.

It might seem far-fetched, but given the company’s struggling stock price, which is down 30% this year, as well as an alleged sex scandal from the Wall Street Journal, Musk might be incentivized to jump ship on the highly scrutinized publicly traded company.

Kalshi traders think there’s slightly more than a one in five chance that Musk leaves this year. Click here to make your own trade.

UPDATE
Odds of Musk leaving Tesla dropped to 8% after the CEO claimed to have a comfortable lead in shareholder voting.

Rate cut relcutance

After yesterday’s better-than-expected May CPI print, traders are much more optimistic about the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024. The fact that there was also a Federal Open Market Committee meeting yesterday, and the committee signaled that one rate cut was coming this year, probably didn’t hurt either.

“In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective,” the committee said in a meeting statement. This was a notable departure from the previous month, which mentioned “a lack of further progress” toward the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.

Despite the Fed’s optimism, many Kalshi traders are reluctant to take the Fed at its word, and are currently pricing in a 26% chance of zero cuts this year. On the other hand, traders are also pricing in a 30% chance that we have two cuts this year. So chances are this market could be in for a lot of drama over the next six months.

12 weeks for Taylor?

Remember when Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department was released way back in April of 2024? Those were simpler times.

Back then, our market forecast suggested the album would last about three-to-four weeks at number one on the Billboard Hot 200. But nearly two months later, the album is still going strong.

Currently, our updated forecast suggests TTPD will last 12 weeks in the top spot. But there’s also a 47% chance it hits 13, and between a 20% and 25% chance it lasts more than 14 weeks.

When will the album finally drop from the #1 spot? No one is certain. But one thing that is certain is the fact that time and time again, underestimating Taylor Swift has not been a good way to make money.

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author(s). Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your particular circumstances, investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any described. Any research views expressed represent those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of Kalshi or its affiliates. Any demonstrative examples are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. While Kalshi strives to provide accurate and timely information, there may be inadvertent inaccuracies, errors and omissions, for which we apologize and expressly disclaim any liability. We reserve the right to make changes and corrections at any time, without notice. The content is provided on an "AS IS," "AS AVAILABLE" Basis. Any information denoting past or historical performance is not indicative of future performance and no reliance shall be placed on such information.