I was all set to write about how the biggest surprise this October was that there was no ‘October surprise,’ at least as far as our markets were concerned.

Sure, Trump’s former chief of staff publicly called him a fascist who praised Hitler’s generals. Also, a comedian at the biggest Trump rally of the year referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.”

And yes, the current (and possibly senile) President of the United States muttered something about Trump supporters being “garbage.”

But the whole point of an “October surprise” is that it’s supposed to clearly shift the momentum of a race. And there's been no sign of that… until last night.

^{This is an opinion, and is not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

On October 29th, Trump’s chances of winning hit an all-time high of 65.2%. But less than 48 hours later, they’ve fallen by more than 8% to 58.1%.

More importantly, the same pattern is playing out in the crucial swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

And as I’ve mentioned, Harris’s  most realistic path is to hold on to the “Blue Wall.”

Yes, that’s just my opinion. But all my roommates at the halfway house agree.

Rust Belt rebound?

In Wisconsin, Trump’s odds of winning have dropped from a high of 56.1% to 51%, meaning the race is nearly a coin flip.

Harris is also seeing big gains in Michigan. On October 29th, the race was effectively tied, with Trump at 50.1%.

But less than two days later, Harris is now the favorite, and her odds of winning have climbed to 54%.

However, as of now, Pennsylvania paints a less rosy picture for Harris.

Yes, the momentum has shifted, and Trump’s chances have dropped by five points.

But his odds of winning are still 57%.

As mentioned above, Harris’s “Blue Wall” path requires her to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

But the chances of all three states going to the same candidate have now dropped to 45%.

But our “Blue Wall” market is relatively new, so be sure to keep an eye on it to see if anything changes as volume increases.

In another positive sign for Trump, he is still favored to win 4.6 states in our Swing-State market.

Anything over four would kill Harris’s “Blue Wall" path, and the former President currently has a 66% chance of winning five states or more.

That said, Pennsylvania is certainly still in play for Harris. But...

The clock is ticking...

Is the fallout from Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden responsible for Harris’s newfound momentum?

It’s hard to say, but it certainly didn’t help. Either way, something clearly caused a shift.

The real question is whether Harris’s momentum can continue—and if Biden’s ‘garbage’ blunder will stunt her gains.

With less than five days until the election, we’ll soon know if this potential 'October surprise' is a real shift—or just a mirage.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}