It's official: You can now trade on the U.S. Presidential Election
By Tarek MansourFor decades, our community has waited for this moment. The wait is finally over.
I am beyond thrilled to announce the biggest news in the history of prediction markets!
On Wednesday, a federal appeals court upheld a landmark ruling allowing our exchange to list election contracts. Now, for the first time in a century, Kalshi offers U.S. residents 100% legal trading on the 2024 election, including:
- Popular vote winner
- Presidential winner (individual states)
- Presidential tipping point state
- Electoral College margin of victory
- Popular vote margin of victory
- State popular vote margin of victory
- Presidential nominees in 2028
- State governor race winners
- Individual Senate race winners
- Individual House race winners
- Congressional race margins of victory
- Popular vote and presidency parlay
- House, Senate, and Presidency parlay
- And many more.
In other words, Kalshi just made history, and now is your chance to be part of it.
A bold new era for a forgotten American tradition
While Kalshi’s legal victory is certainly the dawn of a new era for financial markets, election trading itself is nothing new. In fact, it has deep roots in American history.
"The absence of these markets in the mid-20th century is more the exception than the rule." - Rhode & Strumpf, Historical Political Futures Markets
References to the practice can be found as far back as the election of George Washington. By the time of Lincoln, the practice was so common that organized election exchanges had formalized the process. In the late 1800s, New York’s financial district was a hub for accurate election forecasts, and by the early 1900s, election trading on Wall Street actually outpaced stocks in the run-up to election day.
Now, over a century later, Kalshi is revitalizing this American tradition—making it legal, transparent, and fully compliant with modern regulations.
Real money, real protection, real-time data
As with all futures contracts, real-money election contracts are sure to attract the attention of speculators. But they should not simply be dismissed as a way to gamble on the election.
In reality, these contracts provide a valuable public good, allowing anyone to hedge against the uncertainty inherent in our political process. They also bring more truth to our world with an unbiased, real-time snapshot of the most important events of the day.
Hedge against political turmoil
Election outcomes are arguably the most consequential events in our lives. In one way or another, every man, woman, and child in the United States (and beyond) will feel the effects of the ballot box in the form of taxes, healthcare, the economy, and even war… the list is endless.
Previously, election hedging was a privilege reserved for large corporations and the wealthy elite. But thanks to Kalshi, everyone has the right to protect themselves from the uncertainty inherent in the democratic process.
From business owners concerned about new regulations to students worried about the status of student loan forgiveness, to retirees anxious about healthcare changes, Kalshi gives individuals the chance to hedge against the outcomes that matter most to them.
Unbiased, real-time information
“An old axiom in the financial district [is] that Wall Street [election] odds are ‘never wrong.’" - The New York Times - September 28, 1924
As the quote above demonstrates, election markets were used as a source of unbiased, real-time information long before the advent of modern political polling. But in recent years, political polls have been plagued with accuracy issues and non-response bias.
Kalshi’s market prices are driven by informed traders who are financially invested in the results. By harnessing the 'wisdom of crowds,' these forecasts are highly accurate, often outperforming pundits and experts.
Unlike static polls, which are always playing catch-up, Kalshi’s markets provide continuous updates that almost instantaneously reflect the latest developments in the election cycle. They serve as a valuable tool for analyzing trends and understanding voter sentiment.
Liquid, legal, limitless...
Thanks to Kalshi, prediction markets are coming out of the shadows. Our fully regulated contracts comply with both state and federal regulations, which helps protect traders and ensures our markets are fair and honest.
Because of Kalshi’s 100% legal status, we are able to work with well-known market makers such as Susquehanna International Group (SIG). They are expected to provide millions of dollars in liquidity, ensuring that traders can easily enter or exit trades as needed.
Best of all, individuals can trade up to $7 million per contract, while eligible contract participants (ECPs) such as corporations and investment firms can trade up to $100 million.
Deposit now on Kalshi Klear
Over the next week, Kalshi will roll out a wide variety of election markets. In order to trade these new contracts, users must deposit funds in a "New Market" wallet via Kalshi's new clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear.
By depositing in Klear, users will soon gain access to Kalshi's election markets and other exciting new features, including:
- Over 4% interest on positions and deposited funds (coming soon)
- Instant settlements
- New, easier ways to deposit and withdraw
- Exciting new markets and market formats
Be part of history...
After years of hard work and legal challenges, the entire Kalshi team is honored and humbled to bring election trading back to the US for the first time in over a century.
It’s been a long, difficult battle, but one that was absolutely worth fighting. And in the end, with your support, we prevailed.
So don’t wait. Click here to sign up and deposit in Klear, or download our app or update to the latest version, and get ready to be part of history.
Follow Tarek Mansour on X: @mansourtarek_
This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
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