The pollsters got it wrong.

The pundits got it wrong.

The press got it wrong.

But as the NYT wrote one century ago, “[Election] betting odds are ‘never wrong.’”

That was certainly true last night.

As the results came in, and Trump’s resounding victory became more and more apparent, pundits like Allan Lichtman, forecasters like Nate Silver, and pollsters like Ann Selzer were left absolutely humiliated, and scrambling for cover.

^{This is an opinion, and is not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Meanwhile, despite weeks of vilification, including accusations of market manipulation, Kalshi traders were completely vindicated.

On October 10th, our traders began pricing Trump as the favorite. And aside from a brief collapse when the Selzer poll was released, the market never looked back.

Of course, this is Kalshi’s first Presidential market. Did our traders just get lucky?

History suggests otherwise.

Between 1884 and 1940, when election trading was legal and common, the markets’ mid-October favorites won the race in 11 out of 15 contests, achieving a 73% accuracy rate. And in three of the four remaining races, the odds were near even.

Kalshi's 2024 Presidential market continues the pattern.

To be fair, our markets did give some false hope for Harris in the rust belt, particularly in Michigan, suggesting she might have a narrow path to 270 electoral votes.

But overall, our traders didn't buy the Harris hype, and were very bullish on Trump in the sun belt. From their inception, our Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona markets all showed Trump to be the clear favorite despite talk of an upset.

So despite weeks of accusations and speculations, our markets emerged victorious, and our haters are now our waiters at the banquet of success.

And while it might not be true that the odds are "never wrong," they seem a hell of a lot more accurate than the polls and pundits.

So why would you ever trust them again? At this point, you're all out of excuses.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}