Last week, the mpox situation took a turn for the worse as the World Health Organization declared the newest strain, known as Clade 1b, a public health emergency of international concern. While events unfolded quickly, anyone following Kalshi’s public-health markets knew that trouble was brewing.

Remember: this is not financial (or medical) advice. It's just the opinion of a guy getting paid to ramble on the Internet while using a pseudonym. So do your own research, and invest at your own risk. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.

For months, the chance of the WHO declaring a new public health emergency was trending lower. By late July, our market was at an all-time low of 18%, and it remained there into early August.

But on August 7th, things began to shift as word that the new, more severe strain of mpox was quickly spreading. Days later, prices spiked above 40% as it became clear that the African CDC was set to declare the outbreak a “continental emergency,” which it did on August 13.

Just one day later, our market shot to 99% as the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

Now, as the first cases of the new strain are confirmed outside of Africa, fears of an mpox pandemic are on the rise. But are such fears justified?

Mpox Pandemic?

According to The Associated Press, experts in Europe are worried about more imported cases but are downplaying the risk of local outbreaks. For now, our traders seem to agree.

Our Pandemic in 2024 market is currently at 14%.

And our new mpox-specific pandemic market is similarly priced at 16%.

When you’re dealing with a deadly disease, those numbers are nothing to sneeze at (sorry). But they’re not exactly suggesting it’s time to panic.

Why are experts and traders relatively optimistic?

Unlike COVID-19 and other recent pandemics, mpox is not an airborne disease and is spread mainly through physical, skin-to-skin contact. The disease also spreads much slower than COVID and other airborne illnesses, which can see exponential growth.

Not to mention the fact that unlike other recent outbreaks, which were hard to detect, mpox tends to cause visible lesions on its victims. So if you’re throwing a party, and a guest shows up covered in boils and sores, maybe leave Twister on the shelf.

That said, as mentioned above, the odds of the WHO declaring a new public health emergency in 2024 were at only 18% in early August, and look how quickly that changed. So keep an eye on the news.

Bird Flu Pandemic?

While mpox isn’t airborne and is relatively slow to spread, bird flu has the potential to be a very different story.

As The New York Times points out, influenza viruses tend to mutate rapidly, which raises the risk of a strain that spreads easily. That’s very bad news, since H5N1 is typically more deadly than COVID and the flu.

Luckily, as it stands now, our traders see just a 5% chance of a Bird Flu pandemic this year.

However, there is a higher chance that the WHO declares Bird Flu a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024, with Kalshi traders pricing it at 17%.

COVID-19 Variants?

Sure, mpox and bird flu are getting all the press these days. But let’s not forget about our old friend COVID.

According to The Hill, the CDC is no longer tracking individual COVID cases. But wastewater testing indicates we’re in the middle of a summer surge, especially in the Western United States.

While current cases are much less dangerous than what we saw in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, new variants could cause major problems.

But as of now, traders are not too worried. Our “new variant of concern” market is trading at just 8%, while our “COVID high consequence variant” market is at just 4%.

Measles Cases 2024

Last but not least, let’s take a look at one of the OG viruses, a blast from the past that’s managed to mount a bit of a comeback in 2024. Of course, I’m talking about measles.

So far this year, the CDC has reported 219 cases in the US, and our measles market forecast is currently projecting 334 cases for the year.

However, many traders are predicting it will climb even higher. There is currently a 44% chance that cases will top 350 in 2024, and nearly a 20% chance we’ll make it above 750.

Either way, 2024 is already the worst year for measles since 2019.

Recap: Pandemic risk assessment:

• Mpox: Kalshi markets show a 14% chance of a pandemic in 2024 and a 16% chance of an mpox-specific pandemic.
• Bird Flu: Despite a low current risk, with only a 5% chance of a bird flu pandemic, there is a 17% chance of it being declared a public health emergency by the WHO before 2024.
• COVID-19 Variants: Traders are relatively unconcerned about COVID, with only an 8% chance of a new variant of concern and a 4% chance of a high-consequence variant emerging.
• Measles on the Rise: 2024 is shaping up to be the worst year for measles since 2019, with a 44% chance of cases topping 350 and a nearly 20% chance of exceeding 750 cases.
  
  Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

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