In mid-May, President Biden and former President Donald Trump agreed to take part in two presidential debates: one on June 27 and one on September 10.

But anyone looking forward to these geriatric jamborees might be in for a big disappointment (beyond the normal disappointment of watching our republic collapse).

In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent criminal conviction, the likelihood of both debates taking place is now less than 50%.

According to our 2024 Presidential Debate Market, there is currently a 33% chance that we'll see only one debate, and an 18% chance we see no debates at all!

Why is there a nearly one-in-five chance that the debates won't happen?

Past performance

Remember: this is not financial advice. It's just the opinion of a guy getting paid to ramble on the Internet. So do your own research, and invest at your own risk.

According to the Securities and Exchange Commission, "past performance is not indicative of future results."

But f--k that noise. We're not choosing a mutual fund. We're talking politics. And recent history is certainly worth considering.

Which brings us to the fact that these two boomers already have a history of canceled debates.

In 2020, three debates were scheduled. But the second debate was called off after Trump was hospitalized with Covid-19.

Attempts to reschedule proved fruitless when the two campaigns could not agree on terms. Granted, coronavirus isn't likely to pop up this year (maybe bird flu), but the fact remains that a canceled debate would not be unprecedented.

Two debates aren't necessarily in Trump's interest

As mentioned above, Trump has already agreed to two debates. But in case you've been trapped in your neighbor's crawlspace since 2016, it's important to note that Donald Trump says a lot of things he doesn't mean.

But why would Trump want to walk away?

The same reason he refused to debate any Republican primary challengers: it wasn't in his interest.

If Trump is way ahead in the polls in June or September, he may decide a debate, where anything can happen, can only hurt his chances. He probably remembers that back in 2020 his poll numbers dipped after the debates.

While walking away from a debate might hurt some politicians, Trump also has a magic get-out-of-jail-trouble-free card: yelling "fake news!"

In 2020, the second debate was canceled due to Trump's illness. But another reason cited was allegations of anti-Trump bias from would-be moderator Steve Scully. True or false, it gave Trump a way to cancel without losing face.

And since this year's debates will be held by CNN and ABC, it’s not hard to imagine Trump making similar accusations.

Additionally, the rules of the debate, as laid out by the Biden campaign (no audience, microphone cut-offs, etc.), also provide an easy punching bag for Trump if he needs it.

And let's not forget that Trump is already saying he'll require Biden to take a drug test. Of course, he knows Biden will refuse, but he's setting the stage to walk away if need be.

Two debates aren't necessarily in Biden's interest

Obviously, the same logic applies to Biden.

Granted, he called for these debates, so it's unlikely he'd be able to skip the first one without looking like a coward.

But if he manages to score big on Trump in the first debate and turns around his sagging poll numbers, it might make perfect sense for him to walk away… or at least wander away.

They hate eachother

Let’s not forget, these two men hate each other.

Trump has been running around the country for four years calling Biden an Alzheimer's patient.

And Biden refers to Trump as a "sick f#ck” behind closed doors and comes close to saying the same in public.

It’s not hard to imagine the first debate going off the rails with comments about drug-addicted children or porn star infidelity, which could cause either man to refuse to participate in round two.

An unplanned river cruise...

Last but not least, there's the elephant in the room: THESE MEN ARE OLD!

It is completely possible that one or both of the candidates breaks their hips (or worse) before the first or second debate. But don't take my word for it. Google "actuary tables" and draw your own conclusions.

Check out our 2024 Presidential Debate Market here.

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