Here’s a look at Kalshi's newest prediction markets.

• Mayor Adams out?
• Trump nominates Elon?
• Republicans Senate seats?
• Who will win Nebraska-2 & will it matter?
• Kalshi's 2024 Election Forecasting Dashboard

Announcement - Extended election trading hours:

In the run-up to the 2024 election, Kalshi's exchange will be open for trading seven days a week from 8:00 AM ET until 3:00 AM ET. On Monday, November 3, the market will remain open past 3:00 AM and will not close until 3:00 AM on Sunday, November 10. Click here for more details

Will Eric Adams survive?

New York City Mayor Eric Adams once said, “All my haters become my waiters when I sit down at the table of success.” Unfortunately for Adams, he may soon have to come up with a new rhyme about sitting down to a table in a prison chow hall. What’s a word that rhymes with “shiv?”

Last month, the Justice Department accused Adams of bribery, wire fraud, conspiracy, and soliciting campaign contributions from foreign nationals, making him the first sitting mayor in New York history to be indicted. Now, the question is how much longer he’ll be mayor.

So far, Adams is vowing to fight the charges, and Kalshi traders seem to think he'll survive, at least through the end of the year. His chances of leaving office in 2024 are currently only 29%.

Elon nominated to Trump's Cabinet?

Since Elon Musk jumped on the Trump train last July, there’s been a lot of speculation that he could end up as a member of the President’s Cabinet, should he win in November. Trump initially said he’d consider Musk for a Cabinet spot before backtracking and saying the world's richest man was too busy running Tesla, SpaceX, and X. Now Trump is backtracking on his backtrack, and saying he’ll appoint Elon to a new role as “Secretary of Cost-Cutting.”

But a quick look at our Elon Musk Cabinet Nomination market shows that traders are skeptical, and it's probably not just a matter of Musk's business commitments. For one thing, creating a new Cabinet-level position would require congressional approval and could prove difficult if the Democrats win back the House. Additionally, appointing Musk to an existing Cabinet position could also prove difficult, depending on how many seats the Republicans pick up in the Senate. This is also true for other names that have been floated for Cabinet spots, such as RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. That explains why, as of now, Musk’s chances of being nominated are only 16%. That, and the fact that Trump hasn't even won yet.

Republican Senate Seats?

Speaking of the Senate, Kalshi’s market on Senate control after the election currently gives the GOP an 82% chance. But traders are far less certain how large the majority will be, assuming they win. The answer to this question has major ramifications.

If the Republicans eke out only 50 or 51 seats, moderate senators such as Susan Collins will play an outsized role, similar to Joe Manchin’s current situation with the Democrats. As of now, traders think there’s a 31% chance the Republicans will pick up 52 seats, a 14% chance they go beyond that, and a 48% chance they pick up fewer. For Democrats hoping to hold the line, there’s still an 8% chance the GOP ends up with 49 seats or fewer.

Who will win Nebraska-2... and will it matter?

Nebraska is one of two states that does not use a winner-take-all system to allocate its Electoral College votes. If a presidential candidate wins the popular vote in a congressional district, they earn that district’s vote—even if they lose the state overall. One EC vote might not seem like a big deal, but in an election this close, it could mean the difference between a 269-269 tie and a 270-268 win for Harris.

Earlier this year, Nebraska Republicans tried and failed to change the system to avoid that very scenario. As a result, Nebraska’s Second Congressional District is still in play, and our market currently gives Harris about a 90% chance of securing this potentially decisive vote.

Kalshi's 2024 Election Forecast Dashboard

As you know, Kalshi recently began offering event contracts on U.S. elections, the first legal way to trade on elections in over a century. Since then, we’ve launched dozens of markets, each of which provides real-time data. Now, Kalshi has compiled that information into our 2024 Election Forecast Dashboard. It provides a real-time snapshot of the Presidential race, congressional control, individual swing-state races, and much more.

So click here to check out Kalshi’s new Election Forecast Dashboard, and get an unvarnished look at the wisdom of crowds and the state of the 2024 election.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

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