Here’s a look at key Kalshi prediction markets offering insights for the week of Monday, September 30th.

• Number of tropical storms this year?
• Tesla deliveries this quarter?
• How many presidential debates this year?
• Jobs numbers this month?
• "Joker: Folie à Deux" Rotten Tomatoes score?

Storm surge…

After an unexpected lull in storm activity, hurricane season is back with a vengeance. Last week, Hurricane Helen reached Category 4 and wreaked havoc from Alachua, Florida, to Asheville, North Carolina. And while the worst is finally over, Florida and the Gulf Coast certainly aren’t out of the woods yet. Currently, there are two storms in the Atlantic—Tropical Storm Joyce and Hurricane Isaac—which pose no threat to the U.S. But the National Hurricane Center believes conditions in the Caribbean are favorable for a low-pressure development next week, which could lead to a tropical storm or worse. While we’ll have to wait and see what happens, Kalshi traders are currently predicting 16.8 tropical storms, 8.9 hurricanes, and 3.8 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2024.

Deliver us from Elon...

2024 started off as a rough year for Tesla. In the first quarter, profits were down more than 50% compared to the previous year due to slumping sales and competition from China. At one point, the company’s stock price was down nearly 40%. The company also delivered only 386,810 vehicles in Q1, which was a 20% decrease year-over-year. But just five months later, the Tesla tables have turned, and Elon is back on top. Sales have stabilized in the U.S. and increased in China. And the company’s stock price erased its early losses and is actually up slightly for the year (as of September 30th, 2024). But the question remains: will the company’s delivery numbers follow suit? Wall Street expects to see that Tesla delivered 462,000 vehicles when Q3 numbers are released later this week. However, Kalshi traders are even more optimistic, with a consensus forecast of 467,000.

Vice City...

In years past, the vice-presidential debate was often seen as a rowdier, more combative affair compared to its presidential counterpart. It was a chance for the campaigns to attack each other in a way that allowed the presidential nominees themselves to stay above the fray and remain… presidential. Of course, all that went out the window in 2016 once Donald Trump came into the picture. Now, screaming about immigrants eating pets is the norm. So when Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance square off on Tuesday night at 9:00 p.m. ET, expectations will be high. In fact, if Vance isn’t accused of copulating with a couch, and Walz isn’t accused of setting up mandatory transgender surgery centers in public school restrooms, viewers will probably tune out and hope for another Trump-Harris debate. But will another Presidential debate happen? As of now, Kalshi traders put the chances of exactly three presidential debates at 31%. That’s not great, but it’s a seven-point increase from last week.

Jobs report jitters...

At the September FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell and other Fed officials justified their decision to make a 50 bps interest rate cut by citing the cooling labor market. After all, inflation hasn’t quite reached the long-awaited 2% target, but it’s been trending in the right direction. And holding rates too high for too long could start to negatively impact the job market. So the Fed switched gears to focus on the other side of their dual mandate. But now, with the September Jobs Report due out on Friday, some analysts are worried that a stronger-than-expected number could jeopardize future cuts. After all, if the job market isn’t cooling as fast as expected and the Fed just unnecessarily juiced the economy, the inflation situation might be back at center stage. Luckily, Kalshi traders don’t seem too worried and currently forecast 140,000 jobs added in September, slightly lower than the Wall Street estimate of 144,000. That said, price in a 45% chance of 150,000 or above, and a 14% chance of a report above 200,000. So we might not be out of the woods.

'Joker: Folie à Deux'

In 2019, Todd Phillips' "Joker" made more than $1 billion globally. Five years later, as Phillips is set to release his long-awaited sequel this Friday, expectations are much lower. The film is expected to bring in only $48 million to $68 million this weekend, well below the $96.2 million opening of its predecessor. And in terms of critical reception, Kalshi traders currently forecast a Rotten Tomatoes score of 59.5%, which is nearly 10 points lower than the first film, and just below the site's “fresh” rating cutoff of 60%. Of course, we won’t know what happens until the movie is actually released and more reviews come in, so it’s certainly possible that the joke is on some of our traders. Maybe Phillips will end up with the last laugh.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

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