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In a presidential election, the real prize is the undecided voter who cleans cages at the petting zoo in Punxsutawney, PA, as part of his work-release program. If you can win over that guy, you’re going to the White House, baby!

Due to our winner-take-all Electoral College system, winning undecided swing state voters is the name of the game. So let’s take a look at Kalshi’s swing state presidential markets, and see how the candidates are faring.

Note: Don’t miss our new 2024 Election Forecast Dashboard for a quick, comprehensive breakdown of the race.

^{This is an opinion, and is not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Pennsylvania: 19 EC Votes

Today, Pennsylvania is best known as the birthplace of Taylor Swift. But according to the Wikipedia entry I just skimmed, it was also the birthplace of our great nation. Who knew?

Due to its central role in the American Revolution and early days of the republic, it is referred to as the Keystone State. And thanks to its 19 electoral votes and roughly even mix of Democrats and Republicans, Pennsylvania is also key to winning U.S. elections.

Last week, Trump briefly took the lead in Pennsylvania on Kalshi’s PA presidential market. But since then, Harris has rebounded, probably due, at least in part, to favorable polling showing her with a slim lead.

That said, a recent NYT/Siena poll that showed Harris with a 4-point lead also has a margin of error of four points, which means this race could still be a dead heat. If you need more evidence that it's close, Pennsylvania is also on top of our ‘Closest state in the Presidential election’ market.

Note: Before this article was published, Kalshi's Pennsylvania market moved to 50/50.

Wisconsin: 10 EC Votes

Wisconsin may not be the birthplace of Taylor Swift or the American Revolution, but it is the birthplace of Miller Beer, and Culver’s… and Jeffrey Dahmer. 

Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin was part of Hillary Clinton’s Democratic “blue wall” that Donald Trump knocked down to win 2016. And just as Pennsylvania swung back to the Democrats in 2020, so too did the Badger State, with Biden eking out a narrow 0.63% margin of victory (just over 20,000 votes).

Now, in 2024, Wisconsin is shaping up to be another nail biter. It is currently ranked second in our ‘Closest state’ market. But while it may be a razor-thin race, Kalshi traders think Harris has a slight edge.

Last week, she was briefly overtaken by Trump, who managed to claw his way to 51%. But since then, she’s bounced back, and is currently priced at 53%, with Trump at 47%.

Michigan: 15 EC Votes

Fun fact: Michigan is the only state in the United States that is divided into two peninsulas.

Another fun fact: Michigan is the only state in the Union where I have personally stepped in human excrement while walking on a sidewalk.

But let’s focus on something more disgusting, like the election.

As with Wisconsin, Trump managed to take a slight lead in Michigan late last week. And just as the Wisconsin lead was short lived, so too was his Michigan lead.

Over the weekend, the Wolverine State bounced back toward Harris, who now has a 52% to 48% lead. Why is Michigan trying to copy everything Wisconsin does?

More on that later. But for now, it’s safe to say that while Harris is back in control, the race is still too close for comfort, which is why she’ll be visiting all three of previously mentioned states this week.

Nevada: 6 EC Votes

With only six electoral votes, Nevada certainly isn’t the biggest prize on our list. But in a tight election, it could still play a pivotal role in deciding the outcome.

In fact, since 1912, Nevada has voted for the winning Presidential candidate in all but two elections (Ford in 1976, and Hillary Clinton in 2016).

At first glance, that would seem to be good news for Kamala Harris, who Kalshi traders price as the 53% favorite to win the state. And it is!

But the bad news for Harris is that with just three weeks left, Trump is continuing to narrow the gap in Kalshi’s Nevada market, and in recent polls.

Georgia: 16 EC votes

Beginning in 1996, the State of Georgia voted Republican in six straight presidential elections. That’s an impressive streak, but it all came to an end in 2020, when Democrats managed to flip the state due in large part to Trump’s perceived mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

On paper, Democrats should be able to build on that success. Growth in the Atlanta metro area is shifting the state purple, if not outright blue. And the fact that Trump was recorded during a phone call asking the Georgia Secretary of State to “find 11,780 votes” and overturn the election probably turned some votes off.

But the thing is, groceries are expensive now, and a pizza now costs like $40, so no one cares about a possibly illegal phone call from 2020.

As such, Trump has a pretty strong lead in our Georgia Presidential market and is priced at 67%. Unless he does something stupid, like bad-mouth the Republican governor’s wife, he’s in good shape.

Oh, wait. He already did that? And no one cared? Yeah, he’s in great shape.

Arizona: 11 EC Votes

Like Georgia, Arizona had an impressive run of Republican Presidential support, and backed the GOP five straight times between 2000 and 2016. But the state went to Biden in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes.

Biden’s win was a surprise to many. But over the past decade, transplants from California and other areas have altered the political makeup of the once deep-red state. In 2022, Democrats managed to make further gains, including a surprise win by Katie Hobbs over Trump-loyalist Kari Lake in the race for Governor.

Will the Democrats continue to build on their momentum in 2024? The recent indictment of 11 Arizona Republicans to falsely certify Trump as the 2020 election winner should help them along, at least theoretically.

But again, since a gallon of milk now costs $17, many voters don’t care. And unlike 2022, Donald Trump’s name is on the ballot, which will help boost turnout among the Republican base.

As of now, Kalshi traders price the chances of a Trump victory at 64%.

North Carolina: 16 EC votes

Since 1980, the Republican party has won North Carolina all but once, with Barack Obama pulling an upset during the height of the 2008 financial crisis. But like Georgia and Arizona, recently population growth driven by migration from other states (and countries) is slowly turning the state from red to purple.

While Trump did win the state in 2020, it was his narrowest victory. It was also the only state that Trump won with less than 50% of the vote. But despite the recent Democratic gains, Kalshi traders don’t seem to think this will be the year that the state tips blue.

As of now, he is priced at 61%, compared to Harris at 39%. So unless he does something crazy, like refer to a self-described "black Nazi" with a secret penchant for transgender smut as "Martin Luther King on steroids," he’s in pretty good shape.

Oh, wait. He already did that? And no one cared? Yeah, he’s in great shape.

Swing state patterns

Did those descriptions get a little repetitive? Fair enough. But it’s not just bad prose.

The fact of the matter is that there are similar trends playing out across all of these swing states. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are all rust belt states that traditionally voted Democrat, but have swung to the right since Trump.

There’s a reason Trump was able to knock down the entire “Blue Wall” all at once in 2016. And there is a reason all three states swung back in 2020. All three states have similar voters with similar concerns. If you win one of these states, there’s a good chance you can win them all.

The same is true for Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. They are all traditional Republican strongholds that are slowly being transformed by an influx of new arrivals from other states and changing racial demographics. If you can win Georgia, there’s a good chance you can win North Carolina and Arizona.

Harris leads, but it’s trending Trump

At first glance, Kamala Harris is clearly in a better position than Donald Trump. After all, she’s leading our markets in Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. 

The fact that Trump is leading North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia doesn’t matter. If these markets are accurate, and they hold until election day, it’s lights out for the GOP. Harris wins it, 276 to 262, right?

Technically, yes. But if that’s the case, why is Trump currently favored in our Presidential Election market?

There are still three weeks to go, and while Harris is leading, traders believe Trump has a better chance of flipping key swing states.

The Vice President currently has only a 54% chance in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and a 52% chance in Nevada and Wisconsin. That’s basically a coin flip.

On the other hand, Trump has a greater than 60% chance in both Georgia and North Carolina, and a nearly 65% chance of taking Arizona.

Am I saying it's impossible for Harris to flip one of those states, or that she can’t hold on to the rust belt and win? No, of course not.

What I’m saying is that right now, traders seem to think Trump is laying siege to the Blue Wall, and has several realistic paths to victory, while Harris is forced to hold the line.

This, coupled with the fact that Trump is polling much better than he was in 2016 and 2020, is why he's ahead in our Presidential market.

Do you disagree? Well click here to put your money where your mouth is.

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}