Over the past 24 hours, Donald Trump’s lead in multiple Kalshi markets has plummeted, and traders now price the election as a dead heat.

This dramatic turn of events was sparked by the release of two influential polls, both of which paint an optimistic picture for Kamala Harris.

As a result, whining Kamala Harris supporters are no longer harassing our social media accounts.

That said, I now get the feeling that angry MAGAs in horned helmets might break into our office and rub poop on the walls.

Getting mad at us when our markets move is like getting mad at a sportsbook when the line changes on the Super Bowl, or at an exchange when the price of a stock goes down.

If you really think the price is too low, don't complain. Buy the dip!

^{This is an opinion, and is not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Poll #1: Ann Selzer/Des Moines Register

The most shocking of the two polls was from famed pollster J. Ann Selzer (via the Des Moines Register), who is well-respected for her accuracy in previous elections. It was released last night and shows Kamala Harris up by 3% with Iowa voters.

Takeaways include:

• Independent women favor Harris by 28 points, swinging independents her way.
• Senior women back Harris 2-to-1, giving her an edge with older voters (55% to 36%).
• Only 9% remain undecided, with most voters firm in their choices.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.4%. So, even if it’s accurate, it’s still entirely possible that Trump leads the state.

In fact, our traders still place Trump’s odds of winning Iowa at around 80%.

But that’s not the point.

Iowa is considered a deep red state. Trump won it by 8.2% in 2020. It’s not supposed to be in play for Harris.

If the poll is accurate, the fact that Harris is even in the ballpark, much less ahead, is a huge red flag for Trump, not just in Iowa, but throughout the midwest and beyond. As a result, Harris is surging in key swing-state markets.

Harris odds in our Wisconsin market have jumped from 52% to 61%.

In our Michigan market, her odds spiked to near 70% before pulling back to 64%.

Perhaps most importantly, Harris has basically erased Trump’s lead in our Pennsylvania market.

As I (and lots of others) have been saying for weeks, the Keystone State is key to Harris’s victory in a “Blue Wall” scenario. That’s why traders think there is an 86% chance that whoever wins PA will win the presidency.

Which brings us to…

Poll #2: The final New York Times/Siena poll

For weeks, I’ve been saying that based on what our markets were showing, Harris’s best chance of victory was a narrow path to 270 through the “Blue Wall.”

That may ultimately prove true. But today’s final New York Times/Siena poll claims Harris is gaining momentum in the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt, potentially opening new paths to victory without Pennsylvania.

Takeaways include:

• Trump’s lead has narrowed in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, softening his hold on the Rust Belt.
• Recently committed voters lean toward Harris, especially in the Sun Belt (58-42 overall).
• Harris leads by 3 points in North Carolina and Nevada and holds a 1-point advantage in Georgia, driven by strong support from young, Black, and Hispanic voters.

Since the poll's release, our markets still show Trump as the favorite in most of the Sun Belt states, but his lead is shrinking:

In our North Carolina market, Trump’s odds dropped by 12% overnight, and are now at 59%. His campaign is focusing heavily on the state in the last few days, possibly suggesting they are worried about a Harris upset.

Trump’s odds in our Nevada market also plunged overnight from 61% to 52%.

The same pattern is emerging in our Georgia market, where Trump’s odds are now at 58%, an 11% decrease.

However, our Arizona market is still holding strong for Trump, with the former President’s odds steady near 70% despite the overall negative polling news.

It’s still anyone’s race

It's always wise to remember Republicans tend to respond to polls at lower rates than Democrats, potentially underestimating Trump’s support. But there’s no denying these polls have been a huge boost for Harris in most of our swing state markets.

That said, our markets still think the election is a virtual coin flip, with Trump having the slightest possible edge.

Will Harris’s momentum carry her over the finish line, or will Trump manage to run out the clock?

Regardless of how you answered that question, it’s time to put your money where your mouth is.

Explore all our election markets here.

Explore our non-election markets

And when you’re done trading on the elections, take a look at the huge variety of non-political markets that Kalshi has to offer on everything from finance to film.

Our election markets are fee-free until 11/05, so by trading in our non-election markets, you can help support Kalshi and keep the platform running strong.

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Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}