Earlier this month, when a quote from Senator Susan Collins pledging to support Kash Patel's confirmation as head of the FBI spread on X, the market reacted as if it were real. But LanceUpper, a Kalshi trader with over 10 years of experience in political prediction markets, wasn’t buying it. Instead, he was buying "No" shares on Collins' vote for pennies on the dollar.

Where others mistakenly saw certainty, Lance saw an opportunity—and turned $2,700 into $105,000.

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I recently spoke to Lance to find out more about his trading strategy and how he made some very real money off some very fake news.

Kalshi: How long have you been trading on politics?

Lance: Since 2015. Iowa primaries, Republican nomination. So I guess it’d be about 10 years, almost.

Kalshi: Are you now a trader professionally, or is this still just a hobby for you?

Lance: I derive a bunch of income from doing this, but I also work as a consultant.

Kalshi: How’d you get involved? What caught your attention?

Lance: I’d always been interested in politics. I would just read the news—essentially as entertainment.

When I did find it, I was like, "Oh, I really want to bet on this Trump guy to win basically everything," because it seemed like he was just catching fire, and the markets were just resisting it the whole way.

Although I did lose big on Iowa, I just kept going. You know, more on Trump in these other states, and eventually got it all back.

"I’ve been following these nutcases for 10 years."

Kalshi: What attracted you to the Collins trade?

Lance: Initially, I was looking at buying this because "Yes" shares had surged to something stupid, like 85, 90 cents on absolutely nothing. Like, just vapors.

I was looking at Collins and Murkowski "No," and Mitch "Yes." All of these were just moving one direction based on people correlating the Gabbard and the RFK votes, and assuming it’s just gonna go the way that it’s been going.

Kalshi: When was this?

Lance: The week before. Probably when RFK got confirmed.

Kalshi: What gave you confidence the Patel vote would be different than Gabbard, Hegseth, RFK, etc.?

Lance: Well, initially, the only reason I had begun buying in size is because there was a tweet from a fake Wall Street Journal reporter saying Collins was going to vote for Kash Patel because, quote, "...he said he would not prosecute Trump’s enemies." That was the tweet.

It was from a guy with, like, 20 followers and an AI-generated picture of an Asian man, and he had a bunch of other fake tweets like:

• "Trump to nominate Kanye West as special envoy to Israel."
• "Will Stancil to file paperwork to run for Minnesota Senate."

A bunch of stupid tweets like that.

"There’s no way this is real."

All of them had been ignored, but this tweet about Kash Patel just caught fire, and real reporters like Igor Bobic at The Huffington Post and I think Max Cohen at Punchbowl had started retweeting it.

I was like, "What the f*** are you doing? Just read his feed. There’s no way this is real."

And then you see the market just slamming up to the 90s. So I just started buying the "No" side, thinking, "This is an absolute joke." Collins would never say this a whole week in advance on a nominee this controversial.

Kalshi: Did you consider selling out for a smaller profit?

Lance: Initially, I would have had no problem selling this at a fair market value of, I don’t know, like $0.20, $0.25. But whoever aped just diamond-handed their bag of sh-t the whole way. They refused to sell out. And if anything, I think they started buying more.

I’m like, "What are you guys f***cking doing? There’s just no way it’s this likely."

But because they refused to sell out, they forced me to diamond-hand it too.

Kalshi: So it was a standoff.

Lance: But as time was passing, I started to realize it was becoming more and more likely that she wouldn’t vote for him.

On that Friday before President’s Day weekend, a reporter asked her, "What are you gonna do on Kash Patel?" And she said, "I have to watch the hearing more before I come to a final decision."

I’m like, Oh, that’s not good.

"That hearing was a ----ing circus."

Kalshi: Why did you take that as a bad sign?

Lance: That hearing was a f—ing circus. It was a total farce. Just Judiciary Republicans having a big old laugh up there, flying around, and Kash Patel just sitting there, smirking and lying through his teeth.

Like, [Senator] Tillis goes up there and he hands out a "Kash Patel Bingo" sheet that you stamp based on things that Democrats say about him.

I’m like, "Can you take this sh-t f—ing seriously?" Because none of them were.

So when she said she was going to watch the hearing again, my antenna goes up like, "Okay, well, that’s not going to be good for him," and she didn’t say she’s going to talk to him either.

So I’m like, "Well, if she doesn’t put a statement out like the day before the vote, then the "No" odds should be soaring, because that’s usually a bad sign."

So I’m thinking, "I don’t think I have to sell anything. I’m just gonna ride this the whole way, because they’re just gonna take this all the way."

Kalshi: I can’t trade on Kalshi, but if I could, I probably would have just sleepwalked into this too. I would have just assumed since they didn’t put up any fight for RFK or Gabbard or Hegseth, they wouldn’t stand their ground on Patel. But kudos to you, obviously, for spotting it.

Lance: I think another part of that is Murkowski and Collins are pretty close to January 6th cops and Capitol security people, and they’ve usually been very protective of them.

Kash Patel is out there saying that this whole thing’s a conspiracy planned by the FBI, and he’s endorsing that stupid January 6 choir song.

So this is not a good look if you want to get her vote.

"You have to leave your biases behind."

Kalshi: Do you have any advice or any strategy, in general, that you’re comfortable sharing?

Lance: Well, if we’re talking about things like Senate and congressional markets, I think the most important thing is you gotta read the news. You have to do it constantly, and you gotta do it every day.

You have to know who the players are, and more importantly, you have to understand their personalities and what makes them tick.

And that’s pretty hard to do. The only reason I feel very comfortable betting on it is because I’ve been following these nutcases for 10 years.

I feel like I know them better than I know people in my own family.

Kalshi: That’s a great way to put it.

Lance: If you don’t know these people, it’s kind of the same as trying to figure out who’s going to vote "Yes" on something in the British Parliament.

You can’t just approach it with a surface-level analysis of, "Oh, she’s a RINO and she’s a RINO, so they’re going to vote together because they hate Trump."

No, there’s a lot of things going on here. You have to be informed.

So the most important thing for me, I’d say, is just be informed.

You have to read a lot. You have to leave your biases behind.

Follow LanceUpper on X: @LanceUpperPI
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^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}