In October 1904, famed industrialist Andrew Carnegie was asked about the upcoming presidential election. Carnegie, an immigrant who had become the richest man of his day, claimed he already knew the outcome.

“From what I see of the betting… I am sure of [Theodore Roosevelt’s] election,” he told The New York Times. 

Back then, election markets were so widespread that newspapers would print daily updates of the candidates' odds, which were renowned for their ability to accurately forecast election outcomes. In fact, as The New York Times pointed out, it was commonly held that the Wall Street election odds were “never wrong.” 

Now, 120 years later, Elon Musk—another immigrant who came to America and became the world’s richest man—is once again publicly quoting election markets to predict an imminent victory for Donald Trump.

Will Musk’s recent election predictions prove to be as accurate as Carnegie’s? We’re about to find out.

But no matter the outcome of today’s election, history will be made—not just by the candidates, but by the millions of Americans taking part in the time-honored tradition of election markets.

^{This is an opinion, and is not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

What’s old is new again...

While some might view election markets as a new development, they are, in fact, deeply rooted in American history.

These markets reached their previous zenith in the early 1900s, but the practice actually dates back to the earliest days of our country.

For most of our nation’s history, wagering on elections was commonplace. References to the practice can be found as far back as the election of George Washington. By the 1820’s, the practice was embedded in American political culture.

While running for Governor of New York in 1828, future President Martin Van Buren wrote to a friend urging him to:

“Bet on Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois jointly if you can, or any two of them; don’t forget to bet all you can.”

By the time of Lincoln, organized exchanges run by betting commissioners had formalized the process. And in the late 1800s, the financial markets of New York had become a hub for election trading.

In the months leading up to an election, political trading actually outpaced trading in the stock market. And in 1916, the practice reached its zenith, when $177 million (adjusted for inflation) was wagered on the Wilson-Hughes election.

But the advent of scientific polling shifted public sentiment, and election markets began to fall out of favor. In the second-half of the 20th century, the practice was all but forgotten, and was effectively prohibited under general anti-gambling laws.

But now, thanks to the tireless efforts of Kalshi and its legal team, Americans are once again free to take part in this time-honored tradition.

Trump vs Harris: What the markets say...

Thanks to Kalshi, prediction markets are coming out of the shadows. Our fully regulated contracts are driven by informed traders who are financially invested in the results. This provides a source of unbiased, real-time information that often outperform pundits and polls.

So, what are the markets saying about today’s election?

Right now, Donald Trump’s chances of winning are priced at 58% (but click here for live updates).

Does this mean Donald Trump is a lock to win? Of course not. 58% is not much better than a coin flip. But it’s still a good sign for the Trump campaign.

Between 1884 and 1940, the election markets’ mid-October favorite won the race in 11 out of 15 contests, achieving a 73% accuracy rate. In three other races, the markets were at or near dead even.

That said, the one race where markets were completely off in mid October, the 1916 election between Woodrow Wilson and Charles Hughes, markets swung back to even in the final days, similar to what we saw with Harris's numbers.

And let’s not forget what was perhaps the biggest election market upset of all time. On the day before the 2016 election, Kalshi did not exist. But on other platforms operating in a legal gray area priced Trump’s odds of winning at just 18%.

Regardless of what happens at the ballot box, the fact that $540 million has legally been traded on Kalshi for the 2024 election (so far) is historic in and of itself.

So be a part of history, and click here to trade on our 2024 election markets, and may your Election Day be eventful.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}