Here’s a look at key Kalshi prediction markets offering insights for the week of Monday, September 16th.

• Fed decision in September?
• US bans TikTok before May?
• How many presidential debates this year?
• Government shuts down this year?
• 'Transformers One' Rotten Tomatoes score?

The first cut is the deepest?

For the first time in four years, the Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. But the question remains: how low will they go? Until recently, Kalshi’s Fed decision in September market was pointing to a cut of 25 bps, which would be in line with the Fed’s cautious approach toward inflation over the past several years. But with recent concerns about a cooling job market driving recession fears—along with a recent article by “Fed whisperer” and WSJ reporter Nick Timiraos—traders now think there’s a 62% chance the Fed will cut by 50 bps or more. That said, a last minute plea for a 75 bps cut from a trio of Democratic Senators, including Elizabeth Warren, is likely to fall on deaf ears, given the Fed’s traditionally apolitical approach.

TikTok, ya don't stop... until your appeals are exhausted...

TikTok was back in court on Monday challenging a U.S. law that would ban the app unless its Chinese-owned parent company, ByteDance, agrees to sell. The company argued that a forced sale would violate its First Amendment rights, while the Justice Department claims the company's ties to the Chinese government pose a national security threat. The DOJ also contends that First Amendment issues are moot, arguing the law targets ByteDance’s foreign ownership, not its U.S. operations. As of now, Kalshi traders think there’s only a 21% chance that the platform will end up being banned before May of 2025.

Up for debate: Will Trump face Harris a second time?

The June 27th presidential debate was a complete disaster for President Biden. The fallout from his abysmal performance led directly to his exit from the race, and the nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris. But after debate number two on September 10th, it’s now Donald Trump who is licking his wounds. While the former President’s performance was certainly not as catastrophic as Biden’s, it was widely seen as a loss by all but the most ardent Trump supporters. And while Harris has already proposed a third debate, Trump says he’s unwilling to participate. Is this really the end of the road for the 2024 debates, or will Trump change his tune as the election approaches? As of now, Kalshi traders think there's only a 25% chance there will be exactly three debates.

Shutdown showdown…

With only 15 days until the Federal Government runs out of funding, the pressure is on for Speaker of the House Mike Johnson to come up with a stopgap funding measure that will prevent a government shutdown. Given the narrow GOP House majority, it will only take a few Republican defections to sink the bill–with some help from the Democrats. The problem for Johnson is many right-wing House members are demanding that the vote also include the SAVE Act, a bill requiring proof of citizenship to vote that is likely dead on arrival in the Democratic controlled Senate. To make matters worse for Johnson, Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump is urging a shutdown if the SAVE Act is not passed. But despite obstacles, Kalshi traders think there’s only a 16% chance of a shutdown in 2024.

More than meets the eye?

When you think about the ‘Transformers’ franchise, positive critical reviews probably don’t spring to mind. The last film in the series, ‘Transformers: Rise of the Beasts’ (2023), earned only a 52% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The 2017 film, ‘Transformers: The Last Knight,’ only managed a humiliating 16%. But the upcoming ‘Transformers One’ is earning some positive early reviews and creating a bit of buzz, thanks to the decision to eschew live action and return to the franchise's animated roots. Currently, Kalshi traders forecast a nearly 90% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes (as of Monday afternoon). Has the franchise cracked the critical code, or will that score drop as more reviews pour in?"

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

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