Bitcoin is a leading financial asset known for its innovation and impact on digital markets. With Kalshi, traders can bet on Bitcoin's price movements and pivotal developments through various event contracts. Whether you're hedging price movements or predicting whether Trump will create a Bitcoin reserve, Kalshi offers a direct way to turn correct insights into profits.

In this guide, we’ll walk through how to trade crypto markets on Kalshi, explain the available contract types, and share strategies to navigate the markets confidently.

Understanding the Market

Instead of trading the asset directly, Kalshi enables traders to hedge and speculate on major events in the crypto space.  With transparent regulations, Kalshi provides market participation a straightforward and accessible solution for beginners and seasoned traders.

Explore Kalshi’s Bitcoin Markets

Kalshi's popular crypto contracts focus on Bitcoin’s price movements, including predictions on whether the daily price will be above $100,000 or higher. This type of contract is similar to an over-under bet in sports betting; traders can also bet on the daily price range, such as whether it will close between $97,500 to 97,999.99, offering precise and flexible strategies.

In addition to price-based markets, Kalshi offers contracts on broader Bitcoin events, such as:

• Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?
• Which cryptocurrency will perform best this year?
• Will one of the Magnificent Seven announce they are buying Bitcoin?

These event contracts let you trade on Bitcoin’s adoption, regulation, and reserve asset use, using market sentiment and real-world events to guide predictions.

How Kalshi Bitcoin Contracts Work

Bitcoin Contract Pricing and Payouts

Kalshi contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting the market’s perceived probability of an event occurring. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens.

For example:

If a "Yes" contract on Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by October 2025 is priced at $0.55, the market estimates a 55% chance of the event occurring. A "No" contract would cost $0.45, representing the remaining 45% probability ($1.00 minus $0.55).

• If you buy a "Yes" contract for $0.55 and Bitcoin hits $150,000 by the deadline, you earn $1, making a $0.45 profit.
• If Bitcoin doesn’t reach $150,000 by that date, the market resolves to "No," and you lose $0.55.

This simple and transparent system helps traders easily calculate potential profits and losses, supporting informed trading decisions.

Types of Bitcoin Markets on Kalshi

1. Bitcoin Price Thresholds

Kalshi offers price-based Bitcoin markets to predict whether Bitcoin will reach specific levels within a set timeframe, ranging from daily movements to long-term milestones. Examples include:

• What will today's Bitcoin price be at 5 pm?
• What will Bitcoin's price range be today at noon?

Tip: Monitor Bitcoin’s recent price trends, trading volume, and market sentiment to anticipate short-term price movements and choose thresholds that align with your expectations.

2. Legislative and Policy Events

Kalshi also offers contracts tied to Bitcoin’s political and legal developments, such as:

• Will Bitcoin be legalized in China this year?
• Will the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act become law this year?

Tip: Regulatory changes and political news heavily impact these markets. Keep an eye on macroeconomic trends, geopolitical events, and Bitcoin’s evolving role as a store of value.

3. Broader Adoption and Milestones

Traders can speculate on Bitcoin’s global adoption and key milestones, including:

• Betting on whether another nation will follow El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin as part of its reserves: Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?

Tip: Staying updated on announcements from major Bitcoin-holding countries like the U.S., Germany, and Australia or states like Texas is crucial. 

Strategies for Betting on Bitcoin

To succeed in Kalshi’s Bitcoin markets, traders need a mix of research, market awareness, and strategic planning. Here are some tips to help you make informed bets:

Stay Informed on Bitcoin News and Trends

Keep a close eye on economic and regulatory developments that impact risk assets like Bitcoin:

• Central bank policies and interest rate decisions.
• News about institutional adoption or rejection by major corporations.
• Regulatory updates from regions like the U.S., China, and Europe.

Track Volatility

Bitcoin’s price often fluctuates daily. Use these movements to your advantage by targeting key price thresholds during volatile periods. Short-term markets, such as predicting Bitcoin's price today, can be especially profitable during high activity.

Adapt to New Information

Kalshi’s flexible markets allow you to adjust your positions based on emerging news. For example:

• Buy contracts if positive developments drive a sudden surge.
• Sell contracts to lock in profits or limit losses if negative news impacts the market.

Advanced Tips for Kalshi Traders

Diversify Your Positions

Reduce risk and potentially increase your payout probability by spreading your positions across multiple cryptocurrency contracts. For example, if you're optimistic about Bitcoin, you could combine price threshold bets with long-term adoption markets, such as predicting when Bitcoin will hit $150k.

Capitalize on Market Volatility

Breaking news often triggers significant price swings in event contracts, creating opportunities for experienced traders to profit from rapid fluctuations. Use these strategies to maximize your gains:

• Identify undervalued contracts: Look for contracts where the market may have overreacted to short-term news or rumors. Buying these can lead to profits as prices stabilize.
• Lock in profits strategically: When momentum shifts in your favor, consider closing positions early to secure gains and protect against sudden reversals.

2. Fund Your Account

Deposit funds into your Kalshi account to begin trading.

Tip: Fund your account right after you register to seize trading opportunities.

3. Verify Your Identity

Traders must verify their identity by providing basic personal information and a valid U.S. photo ID. This step ensures that Kalshi operates as a secure and compliant trading platform.

4. Place Your First Trade

Browse Kalshi’s cryptocurrency markets, choose your preferred contracts, and trade "Yes" or "No" based on your predictions. Place your trades and monitor the markets to adjust positions as new information emerges.

How to Get Started

Step 1: Create an account

Getting started is quick and straightforward. Visit Kalshi.com/sign-up to set up your account.

Step 2: Fund your account

Deposit funds into your Kalshi account to start trading. 

Step 3: Verify your identity

All traders must verify their identity by submitting basic information, including their SSN and a valid U.S. photo ID. 

Step 4: Place your first trade

Once your account is verified and funded, you’re ready to trade and bet on Bitcoin!

Market Recap

Kalshi’s federally regulated platform offers an innovative way to best on Bitcoin event contracts and other cryptocurrencies. By speculating on pivotal events, traders of all skill levels can unlock opportunities and transform their insights into profitable strategies.

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}