I don’t mean to brag, but as someone who spent three months in a North Hollywood halfway house, I know a thing or two about the film industry.

That said, when it comes to movies, everyone thinks they’re a critic, especially on social media. But only the select few get paid for it. Or at least that used to be the case.

Now, with Kalshi’s Rotten Tomatoes markets, anyone can use their movie knowledge to make money by accurately predicting a movie’s Rotten Tomatoes score.

And some of our traders seem to have it down to a science. What’s their secret?

Rotten Tomatoes Scores

For better or worse, a Rotten Tomatoes score has the power to make or break a film at the box office. And in March, Kalshi launched our Rotten Tomatoes markets, which give traders the chance to profit by correctly predicting what a film’s Rotten Tomatoes score will be on the Monday after it opens.

Over the past few months, they’ve become some of the most popular markets on the site. And last week’s entry, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, was our most popular to date, with over 675,000 contracts traded.

As the chart demonstrates, it turned out to be a wild ride.

“​​There were some rumors that it sucked early on and a lot of traders went kinda heavy on “No” across all of the brackets,” said Kalshi trader ZubbyBadger. “Then you had the new traders coming in and saying Apes are awesome and it turned out they were right.”

One reason for the initial skepticism was that Apes had a very late media embargo, which is an agreement between critics and studios to hold off on review publications until a certain date.

“Later embargo dates are often signs that they don’t want bad reviews out there early,” says trader Gaeten Dugas.

But Apes was the exception to the rule, and it cost Dugas over $1,000.

“I had $4,200 on this,” Dugas said. “So escaping with a $1,261 loss is pretty good.”

But despite this setback, Dugas is still up nearly $17,000 since March in our Rotten Tomatoes markets, which is not too bad for less than two months of trading.

So if you’re new to the markets, here are some tips from Gaeten and Zubby on how to develop a strategy of your own. And for more commentary from our traders, be sure and check out Kalshi Ideas.

As always, this is not financial or trading advice. It’s just some dudes running their mouths on the Interwebz. Do your own research.

Understanding Rotten Tomatoes markets

According to Gaeten and Zubby, after they've determined which market they want to trade, they break the trade down into three phases.

Phase 1 - Pre-Embargo

This is the time to research and prep, and form an initial opinion about how the film will be received.

• Find the release and embargo dates - Not only is this information important in terms of planning, but an embargo date that is close to or the same as the premiere date often indicates that the studio is afraid of early bad reviews. That said, as the recent Apes market demonstrates, this isn’t always the case.
• Cast, Crew, and early buzz - What actors, writers, and directors are involved with the film. Do they have a good track record with critics? Has the film’s production already made headlines, and if so, were they positive or negative (i.e., Megalopolis).
• Set limit orders - Once they've done their homework and think they have an edge, Gaeten and Zubby set limit orders for the strikes and prices they want.

Phase 2 -  Early Reactions & Reviews

Now that the research is complete and trades are in place, it’s time to play the waiting game. But Gaeten and Zubby stress that it's not time to be complacent. Instead, they:

• Look for early reactions - Early reactions often show up on social media.
• Watch for early reviews - Sometimes early reviews drop before the embargo, especially if the film has a premiere well in advance of its general release, or if it’s being shown early at a film festival (i.e., Megalopolis).
• Be careful and adjust - Keep in mind that early reactions and reviews tend to skew positive. After all, there’s a reason studios sometimes allow them: they’re trying to generate positive buzz. It’s fine to adjust to new info, but Gaeten and Zubby both say they try not to overreact.

Phase 3 - Post-Embargo Reviews

Once the reviews start coming in, the score will move quickly. It’s important to have a plan in place ahead of time.

• Find the Source - These reviews aren’t native to Rotten Tomatoes. They're being pulled from other sites. Finding reviews before they are added to RT give Gaeten and Zubby an edge over other traders.
• Total Review Estimate - Based on other Rotten Tomatoes scores, Gaeten and Zubby come up with an estimate of how many reviews the film is likely to get. Then they keep track of how many reviews have come in to help determine where the score will land. 
• Understand Percentages - A lot more reviews come in on Thursday and Friday compared to Saturday and Sunday. So as the weekend progresses, incoming reviews are much less likely to have a major impact on the score than do early on.

If tips and tricks from the two most profitable RT traders on the site weren’t enough for you, here are a few more thoughts from noob trader marsman57. He's only been trading for a little over a month, but he's sharing a few of his early mistakes.

• Persistence pays off - “There is typically a new market each week. If something doesn't pan out, you learn lessons and can apply those to next time.”
• Balance risk - “There is a good mix of risky plays and risk-adverse earnings opportunities. Often, there are chances for 100%+ ROI pretty late into the market.”
• Keep your cool - “I think the best strategy tip is to not let your emotions or opinions guide your choices in the market.”
• Expect price swings - “A big mistake I made early on would be to buy say YES at something like 60, then see it drop to 40 and sell it and switch to NO, and then watch that side drop... and so on.”
• Trust the data - “There are times when you should cut losses and switch positions, but choose those times based upon actual data and not how the Kalshi market is behaving at the moment.”

But perhaps the most important piece of advice all three of these traders stressed is to have fun!

“Rotten Tomatoes markets are some of the most fun and most liquid markets Kalshi has on the exchange,” ZubbyBadger said.

Of course, it’s easy to have fun when you’re up nearly $16K. What a smug *****! Steal his ideas here!

Upcoming Rotten Tomatoes markets

May 17th

May 24th

July 26th

October 4th

November 22

TBD

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author(s). Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your particular circumstances, investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any described. Any research views expressed represent those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of Kalshi or its affiliates. Any demonstrative examples are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. While Kalshi strives to provide accurate and timely information, there may be inadvertent inaccuracies, errors and omissions, for which we apologize and expressly disclaim any liability. We reserve the right to make changes and corrections at any time, without notice. The content is provided on an "AS IS," "AS AVAILABLE" Basis. Any information denoting past or historical performance is not indicative of future performance and no reliance shall be placed on such information.