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2026 US Primary Election Predictions & Odds | Kalshi
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Recurring
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Trump
US Elections
2026 Primaries
All Midterm Primary Election Markets
Trending
All States
All parties
Governor
Senate
House
Downballot
Cross-State
Politics
Mississippi Republican Senate nominee?
LIVE
Cindy Hyde-Smith
--
99
%
Sarah Adlakha
93.5
x
1
%
$50,133 vol
2 markets
Elections
MS-02 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Kevin Wilson
46.8
x
9
%
Ron Eller
--
99
%
$30,611 vol
2 markets
Politics
Mississippi Democratic Senate nominee?
LIVE
Scott Colom
--
99
%
Albert Littell
93.5
x
1
%
$13,900 vol
3 markets
Elections
MS-02 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Bennie Thompson
--
99
%
Evan Turnage
93.5
x
1
%
$8,804 vol
3 markets
Elections
MS-04 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Jeffrey Hulum III
--
99
%
Paul Blackman
93.5
x
2
%
$4,373 vol
3 markets
Elections
MS-01 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Cliff Johnson
--
99
%
Kelvin Buck
93.5
x
1
%
$2,523 vol
2 markets
Elections
MS-04 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Mike Ezell
--
95
%
Sawyer Walters
93.5
x
2
%
$617 vol
2 markets
Politics
Texas Republican Senate nominee?
John Cornyn
1.62
x
59
%
Ken Paxton
2.34
x
40
%
$10,345,733 vol
5 markets
Elections
Texas Senate Democratic primary margin of victory?
Talarico, 6-9%
1.03
x
96
%
Talarico, 3-6%
46.8
x
3
%
$5,266,882 vol
11 markets
Elections
Texas Senate Democratic primary turnout?
Above 2,400,000
93.5
x
1
%
Above 2,500,000
93.5
x
1
%
$3,919,964 vol
22 markets
Politics
Texas Senate matchup?
Talarico vs. Cornyn
1.62
x
60
%
Talarico vs. Paxton
2.29
x
43
%
$2,559,376 vol
6 markets
Politics
Texas Senate primary: which counties will Talarico win?
Harris
93.5
x
1
%
Dallas
93.5
x
1
%
$637,107 vol
7 markets
Politics
Texas Senate primary: Democrats have higher turnout than Republicans?
Yes
--
99
%
No
46.8
x
1
%
$438,095 vol
1 market
Elections
Texas Senate Republican primary turnout?
Above 2,200,000
9.41
x
10
%
Above 2,300,000
46.8
x
2
%
$396,261 vol
10 markets
Elections
Texas Senate Republican primary margin of victory?
Cornyn, 0-3%
--
99
%
Hunt, 0%+
93.5
x
1
%
$353,354 vol
9 markets
Elections
2nd place in first round of Texas Senate Republican primary?
Ken Paxton
--
99
%
John Cornyn
93.5
x
1
%
$244,435 vol
3 markets
Elections
TX-33 Democratic nominee?
Colin Allred
1.26
x
75
%
Julie Johnson
3.96
x
21
%
$197,009 vol
3 markets
Elections
Larger margin of victory: Texas Senate Dem or GOP primary?
Democratic primary
--
99
%
Republican primary
93.5
x
1
%
$196,709 vol
2 markets
Politics
Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?
Mayes Middleton
1.40
x
72
%
Chip Roy
3.80
x
25
%
$97,531 vol
4 markets
Politics
How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year?
7 or more
2.09
x
46
%
5
4.31
x
22
%
$97,606 vol
8 markets
Elections
Texas GOP Governor primary: Greg Abbott vote percent?
90% or more
93.5
x
1
%
95% or more
93.5
x
1
%
$90,861 vol
6 markets
Elections
3rd place in first round of Texas Senate Republican primary?
Wesley Hunt
--
99
%
John Cornyn
93.5
x
1
%
$70,057 vol
3 markets
Politics
Democratic Senate primaries combo
Yes
1.48
x
66
%
No
2.73
x
34
%
$58,561 vol
1 market
Elections
TX-18 Democratic nominee?
Christian Menefee
1.13
x
88
%
Al Green
4.98
x
19
%
$62,251 vol
4 markets
Politics
How many House Democrats will lose their primary this year?
7 or more
3.96
x
19
%
3
4.73
x
20
%
$38,146 vol
8 markets
Elections
Tom Cotton vote percent in the Arkansas Senate GOP primary?
85% or more
31.2
x
3
%
90% or more
46.8
x
1
%
$34,424 vol
5 markets
Elections
Texas Senate primary: which counties will Paxton win?
Harris
46.8
x
1
%
Travis
93.5
x
1
%
$34,454 vol
8 markets
Elections
TX-32 Republican nominee?
Jace Yarbrough
1.04
x
96
%
Ryan Binkley
23.4
x
5
%
$27,781 vol
9 markets
Elections
TX-38 Republican nominee?
Jon Bonck
1.02
x
98
%
Shelly DeZevallos
31.2
x
5
%
$22,662 vol
10 markets
Elections
North Carolina Democratic Senate primary: Roy Cooper vote percent?
90 - 94.99%
--
99
%
75 - 79.99%
93.5
x
1
%
$19,628 vol
6 markets
Politics
Republican Senate primaries combo
Yes
3.96
x
17
%
No
1.19
x
83
%
$16,420 vol
1 market
Politics
Texas Democratic Attorney General nominee?
Nathan Johnson
1.05
x
92
%
Joe Jaworski
15.6
x
7
%
$16,251 vol
3 markets
Elections
TX-35 Republican nominee?
Carlos De La Cruz
1.14
x
87
%
John Lujan
4.73
x
15
%
$14,736 vol
11 markets
Elections
TX-16 Republican nominee?
Adam Bauman
1.29
x
78
%
Manuel Barraza
3.08
x
29
%
$12,584 vol
7 markets
Elections
North Carolina Republican Senate primary: Michael Whatley vote percent?
Less than 70%
--
99
%
70 - 74.99%
93.5
x
1
%
$13,143 vol
7 markets
Elections
TX-19 Republican nominee?
Tom Sell
1.20
x
76
%
James Barbee
93.5
x
1
%
$11,573 vol
7 markets
Elections
TX-33 Republican nominee?
Patrick Gillespie
1.02
x
98
%
John Sims
23.4
x
2
%
$8,666 vol
5 markets
Elections
TX-09 Republican nominee?
Alexandra del Moral Mealer
1.08
x
92
%
Briscoe Cain
6.74
x
12
%
$7,403 vol
9 markets
Elections
TX-07 Republican nominee?
Alexander Hale
1.04
x
88
%
Tina Blum Cohen
7.85
x
8
%
$7,333 vol
4 markets
Elections
TX-30 Republican nominee?
Everett Jackson
1.31
x
74
%
Sholdon Daniels
4.51
x
18
%
$5,805 vol
4 markets
Elections
TX-24 Democratic nominee?
Kevin Burge
1.08
x
89
%
TJ Ware
6.74
x
19
%
$5,562 vol
3 markets
Politics
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
Byron Donalds
1.16
x
85
%
James Fishback
7.85
x
12
%
$2,364,925 vol
9 markets
Elections
TX-05 Democratic nominee?
Chelsey Hockett
--
80
%
Forrest Lumpkin
93.5
x
5
%
$4,527 vol
3 markets
Elections
TX-17 Democratic nominee?
Milah Flores
1.06
x
94
%
Casey Shepard
7.85
x
5
%
$4,499 vol
3 markets
Politics
Maine Democratic Senate nominee?
Graham Platner
1.29
x
76
%
Janet Mills
3.96
x
23
%
$1,975,827 vol
7 markets
Elections
TX-14 Democratic nominee?
Richard Davis
1.22
x
82
%
Thurman Bartie
3.80
x
24
%
$2,234 vol
3 markets
Elections
TX-37 Republican nominee?
Lauren Peña
1.83
x
46
%
Ge'Nell Gary
1.79
x
47
%
$2,247 vol
3 markets
Politics
Ohio Republican Governor nominee?
Vivek Ramaswamy
1.05
x
95
%
Casey Putsch
13.4
x
6
%
$570,839 vol
6 markets
Politics
Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee?
Amy Klobuchar
1.04
x
94
%
Tim Walz
46.8
x
2
%
$431,718 vol
10 markets
Politics
Illinois Democratic Senate nominee?
Raja Krishnamoorthi
1.60
x
61
%
Juliana Stratton
2.46
x
39
%
$364,466 vol
14 markets
Elections
KY-04 Republican nominee?
Thomas Massie
1.46
x
66
%
Ed Gallrein
2.66
x
35
%
$306,586 vol
4 markets
Elections
IL-09 Democratic nominee?
Daniel Biss
1.44
x
68
%
Kat Abughazaleh
2.81
x
34
%
$239,684 vol
11 markets
Elections
TX-35 Democratic nominee?
Maureen Galindo
1.65
x
59
%
Johnny Garcia
2.01
x
49
%
$990 vol
4 markets
Elections
NY-12 Democratic nominee?
Micah Lasher
1.86
x
52
%
Jack Schlossberg
3.52
x
24
%
$196,627 vol
19 markets
Politics
New York Democratic Governor nominee?
Kathy Hochul
1.03
x
95
%
Ritchie Torres
93.5
x
1
%
$179,842 vol
9 markets
Politics
California Governor primary advancers? (Person)
Steve Hilton
1.97
x
49
%
Chad Bianco
2.66
x
36
%
$144,354 vol
15 markets
Politics
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
Mallory McMorrow
1.60
x
57
%
Abdul El-Sayed
4.73
x
21
%
$150,635 vol
9 markets
Politics
Georgia Republican Senate nominee?
Mike Collins
1.22
x
81
%
Derek Dooley
7.25
x
13
%
$118,414 vol
9 markets
Politics
Georgia Republican Governor nominee?
Rick Jackson
1.76
x
56
%
Burt Jones
2.73
x
34
%
$104,147 vol
6 markets
Politics
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Lisa Demuth
1.73
x
56
%
Kendall Qualls
3.40
x
28
%
$103,014 vol
8 markets
Politics
South Carolina Republican Governor nominee?
Alan Wilson
2.24
x
42
%
Pamela Evette
2.09
x
45
%
$89,694 vol
5 markets
Politics
Kentucky Republican Senate nominee?
Andy Barr
2.01
x
48
%
Nate Morris
2.34
x
37
%
$84,257 vol
7 markets
Politics
Florida Republican Senate nominee?
Ashley Moody
1.05
x
95
%
Cory Mills
46.8
x
2
%
$82,107 vol
10 markets
Politics
New York Republican Governor nominee?
Bruce Blakeman
1.04
x
95
%
Carl Hyde Jr.
93.5
x
1
%
$81,415 vol
4 markets
Politics
Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?
Julia Letlow
1.55
x
63
%
John Fleming
3.52
x
25
%
$76,132 vol
8 markets
Elections
NY-10 Democratic nominee?
Brad Lander
1.15
x
87
%
Dan Goldman
6.29
x
15
%
$72,563 vol
5 markets
Politics
Oklahoma Republican Senate nominee?
Kevin Hern
1.19
x
78
%
Kevin Stitt
4.98
x
59
%
$64,840 vol
8 markets
Politics
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Sara Rodriguez
2.52
x
34
%
Mandela Barnes
2.59
x
35
%
$61,438 vol
11 markets
Politics
Arizona Republican Governor nominee?
Andy Biggs
1.03
x
97
%
Scott Neely
93.5
x
1
%
$58,088 vol
10 markets
Politics
Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?
Keisha Lance Bottoms
1.40
x
70
%
Jason Esteves
4.51
x
22
%
$57,374 vol
9 markets
Politics
Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?
Connie Chan
2.29
x
34
%
Saikat Chakrabarti
1.40
x
70
%
$53,430 vol
8 markets
Politics
Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?
Peggy Flanagan
1.19
x
82
%
Angie Craig
5.25
x
15
%
$46,157 vol
10 markets
Politics
Alabama Republican Senate nominee?
Barry Moore
1.20
x
84
%
Steve Marshall
5.25
x
16
%
$44,836 vol
8 markets
Politics
New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee?
John E. Sununu
1.13
x
84
%
Scott Brown
8.56
x
12
%
$44,640 vol
4 markets
Politics
California Governor primary advancers? (Party)
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
1.46
x
67
%
2 Democrats
4.31
x
20
%
$42,243 vol
3 markets
Elections
NY-07 Democratic nominee?
Claire Valdez
1.40
x
70
%
Antonio Reynoso
2.98
x
33
%
$41,504 vol
9 markets
Politics
Illinois Republican Governor nominee?
Darren Bailey
1.04
x
96
%
Ted Dabrowski
23.4
x
3
%
$39,638 vol
5 markets
Politics
Michigan Republican Governor nominee?
John James
1.76
x
55
%
Perry Johnson
2.59
x
36
%
$40,617 vol
15 markets
Politics
Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?
Michele Tafoya
1.34
x
74
%
Adam Schwarze
4.13
x
19
%
$38,931 vol
9 markets
Politics
Maine Republican Governor nominee?
Robert Charles
1.65
x
59
%
Ben Midgley
4.51
x
23
%
$38,608 vol
16 markets
Politics
Iowa Republican Governor nominee?
Randy Feenstra
1.52
x
63
%
Adam Steen
4.73
x
20
%
$37,273 vol
7 markets
Politics
South Carolina Republican Senate nominee?
Lindsey Graham
1.13
x
87
%
Paul Dans
9.41
x
12
%
$35,752 vol
4 markets
Politics
Michigan Democratic Governor nominee?
Jocelyn Benson
1.06
x
88
%
Chris Swanson
15.6
x
1
%
$33,132 vol
9 markets
Politics
Ohio Democratic Senate nominee?
Sherrod Brown
1.03
x
96
%
Greg Landsman
46.8
x
2
%
$32,684 vol
4 markets
Elections
NY-08 Democratic nominee?
Hakeem Jeffries
1.02
x
92
%
Chi Ossé
31.2
x
3
%
$32,299 vol
3 markets
Elections
IL-08 Democratic nominee?
Melissa Bean
1.60
x
61
%
Junaid Ahmed
2.34
x
38
%
$20,976 vol
8 markets
Politics
Ohio Democratic Governor nominee?
Amy Acton
--
99
%
Chris Redfern
93.5
x
1
%
$31,970 vol
8 markets
Politics
Maine Democratic Governor nominee?
Troy Jackson
2.73
x
35
%
Hannah Pingree
2.81
x
35
%
$29,334 vol
10 markets
Elections
GA-14 Republican nominee?
Clayton Fuller
1.01
x
98
%
Colton Moore
31.2
x
1
%
$27,043 vol
9 markets
Politics
CA-40 primary advancers?
Joe Kerr
1.57
x
61
%
Ken Calvert
1.52
x
63
%
$29,031 vol
6 markets
Politics
Ohio Republican Senate nominee?
Jon Husted
--
98
%
Mike DeWine
93.5
x
1
%
$27,756 vol
15 markets
Elections
IL-07 Democratic nominee?
Melissa Conyears Ervin
1.52
x
60
%
La Shawn Ford
4.13
x
23
%
$22,715 vol
13 markets
Politics
Oregon Republican Governor nominee?
Christine Drazan
2.09
x
44
%
Ed Diehl
2.81
x
34
%
$22,953 vol
8 markets
Politics
Florida Democratic Senate nominee?
Alexander Vindman
1.10
x
90
%
Jared Moskowitz
7.25
x
8
%
$23,746 vol
8 markets
Politics
New Mexico Democratic Governor nominee?
Deb Haaland
1.44
x
67
%
Sam Bregman
3.08
x
33
%
$22,255 vol
4 markets
Politics
Illinois Republican Senate nominee?
Don Tracy
1.03
x
94
%
John Goodman
93.5
x
1
%
$19,024 vol
6 markets
Politics
Kansas Democratic Governor nominee?
Ethan Corson
1.26
x
80
%
Cindy Holscher
4.13
x
17
%
$21,885 vol
4 markets
Politics
Maine Republican Senate nominee?
Susan Collins
1.06
x
91
%
Dan Smeriglio
11.7
x
8
%
$21,651 vol
2 markets
Politics
Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
Ed Markey
1.20
x
79
%
Seth Moulton
4.73
x
21
%
$21,217 vol
4 markets
Politics
Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?
Dave Bronson
1.65
x
58
%
Bernadette Wilson
1.65
x
59
%
$17,572 vol
14 markets