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Economics

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Economics

Fed decision in March?

Fed decision in March?
Fed maintains rate1.07x
Cut 25bps13.4x
$10,224,169 vol5 markets

How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?

How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?
At least 1 billion31.2x
At least 1 trillion93.5x
$10,887,039 vol9 markets

How much will core PCE increase in April?

How much will core PCE increase in April?
Above 0.0%1.10x
Above 0.1%--
$164,888 vol5 markets

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?
Above 3.0%1.60x
Above 3.5%2.46x
$2,889,678 vol16 markets

US gas prices this week

US gas prices this week
Above $2.9291.97x
Above $2.9597.25x
$96,885 vol5 markets

GDP growth in 2025?

GDP growth in 2025?
2.1 to 2.51.05x
2.6 to 3.018.8x
$2,428,869 vol12 markets

Fed funds rate after March meeting?

Fed funds rate after March meeting?
Above 3.50%1.06x
Above 3.25%1.02x
$218,030 vol11 markets

Gas prices in the US this month?

Gas prices in the US this month?
Above 2.952.05x
Above 3.004.73x
$288,099 vol8 markets

Jobs numbers this month?

Jobs numbers this month?
Above 60,0001.79x
Above 70,0002.29x
$71,465 vol13 markets

Texas Senate matchup?

Texas Senate matchup?
Talarico vs. Paxton1.46x
Crockett vs. Paxton4.13x
$140,322 vol6 markets

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
D-House, R-Senate
D-House, R-Senate2.05x
D-House, D-Senate
D-House, D-Senate2.46x
$896,201 vol4 markets

Inflation in February? (CPI YoY)

Inflation in February? (CPI YoY)
Above 2.4%2.19x
Above 2.3%1.18x
$55,421 vol10 markets

CPI in February?

CPI in February?
Above 0.2%1.73x
Above 0.3%6.29x
$33,457 vol6 markets

Initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb 14, 2026

Initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb 14, 2026
At least 2250001.93x
At least 2300002.73x
$17,489 vol10 markets

When will the next US recession start?

When will the next US recession start?
Q1 202611.7x
Q4 202515.6x
$407,333 vol6 markets

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Exactly 2 cuts3.80x
Exactly 3 cuts3.80x
$1,146,651 vol21 markets

Recession this year?

Recession this year?
Yes4.31x
No1.25x
$378,618 vol1 market

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Above 5%2.66x
Above 6%4.73x
$270,338 vol10 markets

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
Yes3.08x
No1.40x
$124,353 vol1 market

How much will the government increase spending in 2025?

How much will the government increase spending in 2025?
At least $500 billion4.51x
At least $1 trillion23.4x
$582,691 vol2 markets

Blue tsunami this year?

Blue tsunami this year?
Yes2.66x
No1.48x
$71,974 vol1 market

Unemployment in February

Unemployment in February
Above 4.3%1.97x
Above 4.2%1.23x
$25,786 vol10 markets

US Nominal GDP in 2026

US Nominal GDP in 2026
Above $30.2 trillion1.76x
Above $30.8 trillion1.97x
$5,827 vol21 markets

Will Mamdani freeze the rent this year?

Will Mamdani freeze the rent this year?
Yes1.36x
No3.18x
$63,321 vol1 market