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Economics

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All markets
Employment
Fed
Growth
Housing
Inflation
Jobs & Economy
Oil and energy

Economics

Fed

Fed decision in March?

Fed maintains rate
1.01x
Cut 25bps
46.8x
$23,353,260 vol5 markets
Employment

More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

Yes
1.43x
No
3.33x
$917,521 vol1 market
Oil and energy

Gas prices in the US this month?

Above 3.80
1.65x
Above 3.90
2.19x
$1,494,409 vol19 markets
Inflation

CPI in February 2026?

Above 0.2%
2.40x
Above 0.1%
1.18x
$507,329 vol6 markets
Inflation

Inflation in February 2026? (CPI YoY)

Above 2.4%
2.81x
Above 2.3%
1.25x
$614,303 vol10 markets
Oil and energy

US gas prices this week

Above $3.670
1.73x
Above $3.710
2.29x
$94,831 vol21 markets
Primaries

Texas Senate matchup?

Talarico vs. Cornyn
1.52x
Talarico vs. Paxton
2.59x
$2,515,995 vol2 markets
US Elections

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

D-House, D-Senate
D-House, D-Senate
2.09x
D-House, R-Senate
D-House, R-Senate
2.40x
$1,649,336 vol4 markets
Fed

Bank of Japan Rate Decision in March

Maintain current rate
1.03x
Hike 25bps
31.2x
$110,879 vol5 markets
Growth

Recession this year?

Yes
3.52x
No
1.33x
$565,942 vol1 market
Inflation

CPI year-over-year in February 2026?

Exactly 2.4%
2.09x
Exactly 2.5%
2.81x
$164,225 vol16 markets
Growth

US GDP growth in Q1 2026?

Above 2.0%
1.83x
Above 2.5%
2.14x
$219,459 vol8 markets
Politics

March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0
1.02x
Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0
46.8x
$174,655 vol4 markets
Fed

Fed funds rate after March meeting?

Above 3.25%
1.01x
Above 3.50%
1.01x
$754,488 vol11 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 1 cut
3.96x
Exactly 2 cuts
3.96x
$2,000,854 vol21 markets
Inflation

How high will inflation get this year?

At least 3.5%
2.40x
At least 4%
4.31x
$122,777 vol5 markets
US Elections

Blue tsunami this year?

Yes
2.46x
No
1.57x
$111,853 vol1 market
Inflation

CPI core in February 2026?

Above 0.2%
2.14x
Above 0.3%
10.4x
$47,018 vol6 markets
Oil and energy

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level on April 1, 2026

Above 405​ million barrels
1.50x
Above 415​ million barrels
2.89x
$19,783 vol10 markets
Inflation

CPI month-over-month in February 2026?

Exactly 0.2%
2.29x
Exactly 0.3%
2.34x
$20,780 vol9 markets
Inflation

Core inflation in February 2026? (Core CPI YoY)

Above 2.4%
1.67x
Above 2.5%
2.98x
$48,345 vol15 markets
Employment

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Above 5%
2.14x
Above 6%
4.51x
$387,370 vol10 markets
Fed

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision in March

Hike 1-25bps
1.48x
Maintain current rate
3.18x
$25,857 vol5 markets
Politics

Powell out as Chair?

Yes
31.2x
No
1.02x
$9,145,823 vol1 market