Who will be the Democratic nominee in 2028?
Gavin Newsom
17%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Josh Shapiro
11%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will be the Canadian Prime Minister after the next election?
Liberal Party
79%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Conservative Party
22%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How much government spending will Trump and Elon cut this year?
At least 1 billion
33%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––At least 25 billion
27%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will win the Ecuadorian Election?
Luisa González
59%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Daniel Noboa
43%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How many seats will the Liberal Party win in the Canadian election?
190 to 210
35%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––180 to 189
19%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Next government of Canada?
Liberal majority
69%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Conservative majority
13%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will be the Republican nominee in 2028?
J.D. Vance
43%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Tulsi Gabbard
10%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will the Trump admin name to a specific position before May?
Kari Lake
29%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Natalie Harp
9%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will win the South Korean presidential election?
Lee Jae-myung
75%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Lee Jun-seok
10%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How many seats will the Conservatives win in the Canadian election?
120 to 139
34%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––100 to 119
20%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year?
1 to 100
23%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––0
19%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How many Elon Musk posts on X this week?
200 to 249
35%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––250 to 299
27%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Weekly
Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons Election?
Liberal party
78%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Conservative party
21%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How many Cabinet members will Trump fire this year?
0
37%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––1
39%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will leave their role in Trump Administration this year?
Peter Navarro
45%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Howard Lutnick
31%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
What countries will Trump visit in the first year?
South Korea
50%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––France
47%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Will Elon Musk leave the DOGE?
Before Jun 16, 2025
54%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before Jan 1, 2026
86%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Democratic nominee for Governor in New Jersey?
Mikie Sherrill
67%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Steven Fulop
25%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on Apr 30, 2025?
100% to 149.99%
53%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––150% to 199.99%
26%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will win the Senate race in Nebraska?
Republican party
87%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Democratic party
6%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Republican nominee for Senate in Texas?
John Cornyn
52%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Ken Paxton
49%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will be Trump's ATF Director?
Blake Masters
25%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Brandon Herrera
14%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
What will Powell say during his May FOMC press conference?
Median
50%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Consumer confidence
47%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
What agencies will Trump and DOGE order to stop working this year?
Department of Education
28%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––EPA
23%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
What will Karoline Leavitt say in next press briefing?
Ceasefire
52%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Elon / Musk
40%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Which party will win the U.S. Senate next year?
Republican Party
70%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Democratic Party
30%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How many government employees will Trump and Elon cut in 2025?
More than 250,000
66%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––More than 500,000
22%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will win the Senate race in North Carolina?
Democratic party
66%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Republican party
34%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will Trump meet with this year?
Vladimir Putin
71%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Xi Jinping
68%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?
Before September 2025
74%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before June 2025
25%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
The President's RCP approval rating on Friday?
46.1 to 46.5
41%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––46.0 or below
30%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Weekly
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago this month?
3
67%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––4
40%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How many bills will Trump veto this year?
At least 1
38%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––At least 3
9%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
When will Trump end his tariffs against Canada?
Before Jun 2025
43%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before Dec 2025
61%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Howard Lutnick
29%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Scott Bessent
14%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Which countries will impose tariffs on the US before Q3 2025?
European Union
51%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Brazil
24%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Will Trump launch tariffs on EU alcohol?
Before Dec 2025
40%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before Jun 2025
20%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How many seats will the Green Party win in the Canadian election?
1
42%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––2
27%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Who will be the Dem NYC Mayor nominee this year?
Andrew Cuomo
83%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Zohran Mamdani
11%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
What countries will Trump tariff this year?
Colombia
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Denmark
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
How much will the government increase spending this year?
At least $100 billion
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––At least $500 billion
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Which countries will Trump impose a travel ban on in the first 100 days?
Libya
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Somalia
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Which party will win Calgary Centre in the Canadian election?
Liberal Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Conservative Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Who will be the next Australian Prime Minister?
Anthony Albanese
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Peter Dutton
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Which party will win Niagara South in the Canadian election?
Liberal Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Conservative Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Daily
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
Before October
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before 2026
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Which vaccines will RFK end recommendations for this year?
COVID-19
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Influenza
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Which party will win Edmonton Gateway in the Canadian election?
Conservative Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Liberal Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Daily
Will a bill become law ending the municipal bond tax exemption this year?
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Daily
When will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill?
Before September 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before June 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Who will win the governorship in New Jersey?
Democratic Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Republican Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
When will Trump end his tariffs against China?
Before Dec 2025
29%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before Jun 2025
18%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
Democratic nominee for Governor in Michigan?
Jocelyn Benson
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Chris Swanson
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Will the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act become law this year?
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
What assets will Trump's crypto reserve acquire this year?
Bitcoin
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––XRP
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
What agencies will have their budgets cut this year?
CFPB
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––SEC
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Who will visit Mar-a-Lago this year?
Sam Altman
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Mohammed bin Salman
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?
Joni Ernst
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––No other person
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Daily
How many seats will the Bloc Québécois win in the Canadian election?
16 to 20
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––21 to 25
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Will it be reported that US has deported a citizen to El Salvador this year?
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
How many deportations in Trump's first year?
At least 500,000
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––At least 250,000
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Who will win the Romanian presidential election?
Nicusor Dan
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––George Simion
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Who will win the governorship in Virginia?
Democratic Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Republican
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
What will RFK ban this year?
Aspartame
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Seed oils
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
How many Canadian party leaders will resign after the 2025 election?
1
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––2
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––·Daily
Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?
Byron Donalds
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Casey DeSantis
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
How many Trump Cabinet members will leave in the first year?
2
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––0
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Will existential AI risk be mentioned in the White House Briefing Room this year?
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Will Chuck Schumer no longer be Senate Minority Leader this year?
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
USAID
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––IRS
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before July?
Ocean State Tactical, LLC v. Rhode Island
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––L.M. v. Town of Middleborough
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Who will win the Polish presidential election?
Rafał Trzaskowski
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Karol Nawrocki
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Which states will enact gas stove bans this year?
Delaware
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Connecticut
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0Daily
How many Senate ties will J.D. Vance break this year?
2
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––3
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
What will DOGE claim to have saved this year?
At least $500 billion
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––At least $200 billion
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Will the DOJ claim in federal court that any of President Biden's pardons are void?
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Will Trump call for John Roberts to retire or be impeached this year?
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
What will be in the next reconciliation bill?
Higher work requirement for SNAP recipients
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Changes to Medicaid’s matching rates
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
When will Tilman Fertitta be confirmed as Ambassador to Italy?
Before May 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before Dec 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
How many POTUS posts on X this week?
21 to 24
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––25 to 28
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Which party will win the House next year?
Democratic Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Republican Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?
below 7.50
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––below 7.25
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Australian House Election?
Labor party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Liberal/National Coalition party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
When will a budget reconciliation bill become law?
Before July 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before September 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?
No other person
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Ric Grenell
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Who will win the Chilean presidential election?
Evelyn Matthei
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Johannes Kaiser
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0Daily
What states will Trump sue over their trans sports policies?
Maine
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Minnesota
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Will the courts block any part of any of Trump's tariffs this year?
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Which party will win Trois-Rivières in the Canadian election?
Liberal Party
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Bloc Québécois
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0Daily
When will Tom Barrack be confirmed as Ambassador to Turkey?
Before May 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before Jun 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
How many Supreme Court justices will the next President confirm?
2
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––1
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
When will Warren Stephens be confirmed as Ambassador to the UK?
Before May 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before Jul 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Which party will win the 2028 Presidential Election?
Democratic
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Republican
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
Republican nominee for Governor in New Jersey?
Jack Ciattarelli
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Bill Spadea
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$0·Daily
