Best AI this month?
Gemini
60%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––ChatGPT
11%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$4,506,155
What will be the top AI model this month?
Gemini-2.5-Pro-Exp-03-25
52%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––ChatGPT-4o-latest (2025-03-26)
1%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$847,055
TSA avg check-ins from Mar 31 to Sunday?
Above 2.5 million
29%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Above 2.45 million
71%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$4,512,101·Weekly
Will Anthropic release an "AI Safety Level 3" model before 2027?
Yes
$100 → $137No
$100 → $250$35,354
Runner-up US iPhone app tomorrow?
Threads
81%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$16,370·Daily
23h 47m 41s
SpaceX Starship 9th launch?
Before April 24
38%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before May 1
72%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$1,812,037
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Jun 1, 2025?
OpenAI
28%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Google
34%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$9,019
When will Tesla launch unsupervised full self-driving to the public?
Before 2026
48%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before July
18%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$43,636
How many launches will SpaceX have this year?
Above 180
44%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Above 200
12%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$402,652
AI capability growth before 2026?
At least 1600 elo score
49%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––At least 1550 elo score
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$27,535
How many cities will Waymo be operating in at the end of 2025?
5
38%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––4
21%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$33,615
Ozempic and Wegovy prescriptions increase in Q1 2025?
5% or above
22%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––7% or above
6%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$203,427
Will any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto for any of their core services this year?
Yes
$100 → $305No
$100 → $123
Which AI will be the first to hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena?
Gemini
22%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––ChatGPT
24%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$7,308
Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?
Anthropic
32%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Deepseek
34%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$331,892
Will California pass a law mandating AI models have a 'kill switch'?
Yes
$100 → $273No
$100 → $137$44,625
US semiconductor production growth this year?
Above 10%
68%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Above 7%
91%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$13,062
Will Samsung release a trifold phone this year?
Before Oct 2025
50%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before Aug 2025
32%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––
How many Starship launches will reach space this year?
7 to 9
38%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––10 to 12
25%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$6,927
Will the upper stage of the SpaceX Starship be recovered intact this year?
Yes
$100 → $115No
$100 → $394
How high will any LLM hit on OSWorld this year?
At least 70
48%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––At least 60
62%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$2,806
How much better will OpenAI's models be than Google's?
Above 0 points
47%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Above 20 points
35%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$71,722
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
61%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before 2026
13%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$181,765
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
United States
34%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––China
11%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$12,238
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2028
19%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before 2027
9%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$134,057
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess?
Yes
$100 → $271No
$100 → $134$3,070
How much compute will AI models be trained with this year?
More than 750 billion petaFLOP
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––More than 500 billion petaFLOP
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$16,021
Who will win the Fields Medal next year?
Jack Thorne
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Yu Deng
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––NEW
EV market share in 2030?
Above 50%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Above 30%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$3,340
How many Trump Cabinet members will leave in the first year?
2
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––1
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$8,676
Will Sam Altman be granted an equity stake in OpenAI this year?
Yes
$100 → $214No
$100 → $150$17,700
Will any top AI company decide to not release their best models this year?
Yes
$100 → $356No
$100 → $120$3,281
Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027?
Yes
$100 → $356No
$100 → $126$1,009
What will be the Nintendo Switch's release date?
Before Jun 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Before May 2025
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$38,816
Top US iPhone app tomorrow?
ChatGPT
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––Threads
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$3,260,403·Daily
23h 47m 41s
How high will NASA's estimate of the asteroid hitting Earth get before June?
At least 3.5%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––At least 4%
Yes
/
No
Yes
$100 → $––No
$100 → $––$21,699