Post
CrazyJ
Apr 14I kind of figured that conservatives might make some sort of small rebound like this, and if I had money on the liberal party winning a majority instead of a plurality of seats I might be a little worried. But truth is that as long as conservative party doesn't end up picking a PM I walk away with a nice profit, although not nearly as much those who put their bets in before Trump's inauguration. Unless I'm missing something about Canadian politics (and I might be given as I'm an American), I don't see how anything short of a freak political occurrence is going to change the outcome here.
Neolib.shill
Apr 14The existing projections showing 99% lib (eg 338, CBC) pre-suppose that the election happens now.
So something could happen that radically reshapes the polls.
Practically though, this is mostly driven by everyone hating PP almost has much as they did Trudeau.
Unless someone has a picture of Carney in blackface on Epstein's island, the chances are slim.
So something could happen that radically reshapes the polls.
Practically though, this is mostly driven by everyone hating PP almost has much as they did Trudeau.
Unless someone has a picture of Carney in blackface on Epstein's island, the chances are slim.
proximocentauri
Apr 14Given your analysis it's sort of surprising that your largest holding in Liberal Party No. What's your reasoning there?
HairyLegsBiden
Apr 14PP gonna crush that sneaky Carney
Neolib.shill
Apr 15> Given your analysis it's sort of surprising that your largest holding in Liberal Party No. What's your reasoning there?
How can you see that?
In any case, given what you say I am also the likely the largest holder of conservative party no.
Have been trying to make markets with limited success. Previously did it for crypto with delta hedges which worked better.
How can you see that?
In any case, given what you say I am also the likely the largest holder of conservative party no.
Have been trying to make markets with limited success. Previously did it for crypto with delta hedges which worked better.
proximocentauri
Apr 15@neo, on OP's, Kalshi lists your biggest holding in that market/set of markets, so at the top of these replies you'll see "No-liberal party" by your name.
proximocentauri
Apr 15But what I was really wondering is: are you arbitraging Kalshi (cheaper Conservative shares) and Poly (cheaper Liberal shares)?
Neolib.shill
Apr 15Oh you can change that haha. There's a little drop-down arrow and I changed it so it doesn't seem like I am just talking my book.
I actually own more con shares.
I thought you were saying I was the largest lib party no holder (which also could be true?)
I have ~ 6000 lib no shares (sold the rally) and 11k con no shares.
I generally don't use poly market.
I actually own more con shares.
I thought you were saying I was the largest lib party no holder (which also could be true?)
I have ~ 6000 lib no shares (sold the rally) and 11k con no shares.
I generally don't use poly market.