Rotten Tomatoes markets are some of the most fun and most liquid markets Kalshi has on the exchange. Here’s how to play them
Before any reviews come out:
1) Do some research into the movie. I think the most important items are the director, the writer, the release date, and the cast in that order.
2) Find out when the review embargo lifts. Usually, the rule is if the movie is good, the movie studio will likely want everyone to know the critics say it’s good, so the review embargo will be lifted sometime in advance of the movie coming out. If the movie is not good, they will try to hide that from the public as long as possible and thus will lift the review embargo as close to the movie release date as they can. This is not always perfect, but it’s a decent time to start.
3) If you have a good opinion, this is when limit orders can be very helpful. The markets are usually pretty swingy at this time, so your orders might be more likely to be filled without the bottom dropping out.
When reviews start to come out:
1) In general, the earliest reviews are more positive than the later reviews. Maybe the people most likely to submit their reviews to RT early are the most excited about the movie. Maybe the people attending early screenings actually wanted to see the movie instead of being forced to do it for their job. Irregardless, this has been the trend for every movie market that we’ve had so far. Ignore it at your own risk.
2) I’d recommend projecting a total number of reviews and constantly updating the percentage of remaining reviews required to be fresh or rotten in order to reach each bracket based on your projections.
3) This might seem obvious to some, but the reviews show up in other places before showing up on RT.
After a lot of reviews are out:
1) Understand how percentages work. Again this may seem obvious, but when the review total is high, it becomes much more difficult for the percentage to move up and down compared to earlier
2) The number of reviews going into RT drops like a rock on Saturday and Sunday compared to Thursday and Friday.
3) If you have the money available, the most lucrative bets you can make are buying bonds at the end of these markets.
Finally, enjoy these! These markets are the most fun I’ve had trading in some time. There’s no reason why we can’t continue to grow these and all make money together!
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