Will 2025 be the hottest year ever?

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Rules summary

If the unsmoother Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2025 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2024 value and 1.17 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2025, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2026

Timeline and payout

About

2023 was confirmed as the warmest year on record by both NASA and NOAA, with global temperatures averaging 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above the baseline period (1951-1980). This record-breaking year follows a decade-long trend of rising temperatures, with the past 10 consecutive years being the warmest on record. Will it continue?