Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Pete Hegseth 39%
Howard Lutnick 19%
Scott Bessent 9%
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Before 2029
Chance
$595,716vol
Pete Hegseth
39%
▼ 7
Howard Lutnick
19%
▲ 2
Scott Bessent
9%
▲ 1
Important information: In order to leave the Trump Cabinet the person must be in a cabinet position.
Rules summary for
Pete Hegseth
If Pete Hegseth is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached), then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from White House and The New York Times.
If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion. Note: this event is mutually exclusive.Timeline and payout
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
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