Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons Election?

Conservative party 86%

Liberal party 17%

People's party 1%

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The 2025 Election

% Chance

$29,605vol

Conservative party

86%

Conservative party

86%

Liberal party

17%

Liberal party

17%

People's party

<1%

People's party

<1%

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Rules summary for

Conservative party

If the Conservative party wins the most seats in the Canadian House of Commons after the 2025 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from CBC.

This market is strictly about the House of Commons outcome. If the top two parties win the same number of seats, all will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Trading prohibitions

What's happening

New

The Conservative Party is currently leading in the polls ahead of the 2025 Canadian federal election, which must take place by October 20, 2025. A Nanos poll released on September 27 indicated that the Conservatives held 42% of public support, significantly ahead of the NDP at 22% and the Liberals at 21%. If these numbers translate into actual election results, it could lead to a substantial Conservative win.

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