Who will be the Canadian Prime Minister after the next election?

Pierre Poilievre 81%

Justin Trudeau 21%

Jagmeet Singh 1%

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For the next Parliament

% Chance

$104,567vol

Pierre Poilievre

81%

Pierre Poilievre

81%

Justin Trudeau

21%

Justin Trudeau

21%

Jagmeet Singh

<1%

Jagmeet Singh

<1%

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Rules summary for

Pierre Poilievre

If the first Prime Minister for the 45th Parliament is a member of the Conservative Party, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from CBC.

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Trading prohibitions

What's happening

New

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has reaffirmed his intention to lead the Liberal Party into the next election, despite growing pressure and declining approval ratings. Trudeau's party has suffered recent setbacks, including the loss of a long-held seat in Montreal and another in Toronto, raising doubts about his leadership. The Liberals currently trail the Conservatives in polls, with the latest Nanos poll showing the Conservatives at 38% and the Liberals at 25%.

What's happening

Nov 4, 2024

Canadians are uncertain about which of the two likely Canadian Prime Ministers, Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre, would be best to deal with the winning American presidential candidate. Trudeau is seen as better to handle a relationship with Kamala Harris over Poilievre by seven points (37% to 30%), while Poilievre is preferred to handle a relationship with Donald Trump (38% to 23%). At least 18% of Canadians feel neither Poilievre nor Trudeau will do a good job regardless of who wins the election.

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