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What will Trump say in his speech about the State of the Union today?

Elon / Elon Musk 100%
Biden 100%
Illegal Immigrant / Immigration 100%
JanFebFebFebMay20%40%60%80%100%
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Mar 4, 2025 (+0)
$13,744,260vol

Elon / Elon Musk
Yes

Biden
Yes

Illegal Immigrant / Immigration
Yes

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Important information: The underlying speech for this market will be the speech that is sometimes referred to as the State of the Union. Furthermore, the exact phrase/word (including plural/possessive forms) must appear. Other grammatical/tense changes and hyphenated/compound words will not count. If the <word> is 'ICE', then President Trump uttering 'ice water' during his speech would NOT count. Read the rules below for more details.

Rules summary for
Elon / Elon Musk
The outcome is Yes
If President Trump says Elon / Elon Musk as part of his speech to Congress on March 4, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from AP, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, NBC, MSNBC, Semafor, The Information, Politico, Axios, Office of the Presidency, White House, and The New York Times.
Video of his speech to Congress on March 4 will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of his speech to Congress on March 4 will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Hyphenated or compound words used with "Elon / Elon Musk" will not be included. If the is "ICE", then President Trump uttering "ice water" during his speech would NOT count. Similarly, for the "Doge/Dogecoin", President Trump uttering "Elon over at DOGE", even if pronounced the same way the "Doge" in "Dogecoin" is pronounced, it would NOT count. If it is not clear, we refer to the event's underlying, which is the official transcript of the speech. Also, President Trump saying “January 6th” (noting the ordinal “th” in “6th”) will in fact meet the Payout Criterion for the "January Six / January Sixth" market. The phrases “Jan 6”, “Jan 6th”, or “J6”, uttered on their own would not count.

Timeline and payout