What will Trump say in his speech about the State of the Union on March 4th?
Elon / Elon Musk 52%
January 6 49%
Rig / Rigged 46%
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Mar 4, 2025
% Chance
$280,696vol
Elon / Elon Musk
52%
-3
Elon / Elon Musk
52%
-3
January 6
49%
+1
January 6
49%
+1
Rig / Rigged
46%
+1
Rig / Rigged
46%
+1
Important information: The underlying speech for this market will be the speech that is sometimes referred to as the State of the Union. Historical precedent establishes that a President's first such address to congress of their term is not technically a 'State of the Union' speech. Furthermore, the exact phrase/word (including plural/possessive forms) must appear. Other grammatical/tense changes and hyphenated/compound words will not count.
Rules summary for
Elon / Elon Musk
If President Trump says Elon / Elon Musk as part of his speech to Congress on March 4, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from AP, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, NBC, MSNBC, Semafor, The Information, Politico, Axios, Office of the Presidency, White House, and The New York Times.
Video of his speech to Congress on March 4 will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of his speech to Congress on March 4 will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract.The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Hyphenated or compound words used with Timeline and payout
What will Trump say in his speech about the State of the Union on March 4th?
Buy Yes · Elon / Elon MuskBuy
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