Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first year?

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2025

$320,706vol

Order book

Rules summary

If Trump becomes President and the U.S. average weighted tariff is at least 6% by Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.

Timeline and payout

What's happening

New

Donald Trump has stated he will impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on all imports from China from the first day of his presidency. However, experts argue that implementing such tariffs immediately may not be feasible due to legal and procedural requirements. Trump would need to follow specific statutes and procedures, such as those outlined in the Trade Act of 1974 and the Tariff Act of 1930, which could delay the imposition of new tariffs.

What's happening

Nov 21, 2024

President-elect Trump is promising major tariffs that could impact retailers and their consumers, with potential tariffs of up to 20% on all U.S. trading partners and up to 60% or higher on some goods from China. Trump has stated he will impose whatever tariffs are required, even up to 100%, 200%, or 1,000% on some Chinese imports. Retailers such as Walmart, Lowe's, and The Home Depot are preparing for these potential tariffs, with some indicating they may pass the increased costs on to consumers through higher prices.

Market updates

Nov 13, 2024

There will be tariffs. Extra-large ones on imports from China and medium-size ones for the rest of the world. At least that's what Donald Trump pledged on the campaign trail. But if there's anything we learned during his first presidency, it's that this is a man who relishes chaos, pitting members of his cabinet against each other or making sudden policy U-turns that catch even his closest advisers unawares.

What's happening

Nov 9, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to topple many of the Biden administration's economic policies, including imposing huge tariffs on foreign goods, slashing taxes on individuals and businesses, and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants working in the United States. Trump's policies could potentially boost inflation, drive up the federal debt, and eventually slow growth, with the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimating that his proposals would slash the U.S. gross domestic product by between $1.5 trillion and $6.4 trillion through 2028. Mainstream economists, including 23 Nobel-winning economists, have warned that Trump's policies would lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality.

What's happening

Nov 5, 2024

Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, including a 10% universal tariff on all imports and a possible 60% to 100% tariff on Chinese imports, could significantly impact American consumers. The National Retail Federation (NRF) warns that these tariffs could reduce annual spending by $78 billion, particularly affecting low-income families as costs are passed on to consumers. The proposal has sparked controversy, with 44% of voters less likely to support a candidate advocating for universal tariffs, and global concerns have been raised about the potential negative impact on global growth and financial markets.

What's happening

Nov 5, 2024

Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could cost U.S. consumers between $46 billion and $78 billion in spending power each year, according to a study by the National Retail Federation. The tariffs, which include a universal 10-20% tariff on imports from all foreign countries and an additional 60-100% tariff on imports specifically from China, would lead to higher prices on a wide range of consumer products, particularly those where China is the major supplier. This would disproportionately affect low-income families, with increased costs that retailers cannot absorb, resulting in prices higher than many consumers would be willing or able to pay.

What's happening

Nov 4, 2024

Former President Donald Trump has vowed to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico if he is re-elected, with potential increases to 50% and 75% if his initial demands are not met. Trump made this announcement at a North Carolina campaign rally, stating he would present this ultimatum to new Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on the first day of his presidency or sooner. Trump's plan aims to pressure Mexico into stemming the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs into the U.S., a central issue in his campaign.

What's happening

Nov 4, 2024

Since the provided source link is not accessible, I will rely on related information from other sources to provide a summary relevant to the query: Donald Trump has emphasized economic issues, particularly inflation and high prices, as central to his campaign. He has promised to cut taxes, end inflation, slash prices, raise wages, and bring factories back to America, suggesting significant economic policy changes if elected. Trump's focus on economic concerns, including inflation, is part of his strategy to appeal to voters who rank the economy as a top issue.

Market updates

Nov 4, 2024

Mr. Trump has promised to impose tariffs on nearly all Chinese goods and to use the threat of tariffs to extract concessions from other countries. His plan would be a significant escalation of the trade wars he started during his first term, and it would likely lead to higher prices for American consumers and businesses.

What's happening

Nov 3, 2024

The outcome of the presidential election remains uncertain, but if Trump wins, his economic policies could have significant impacts. Trump has indicated he would impose tariffs on imported goods, particularly from China, which could lead to higher prices for consumers and potentially disrupt global supply chains. Additionally, his allies have suggested sharp spending cuts, including a possible repeal of the Affordable Care Act, which could have far-reaching economic consequences.

What's happening

Nov 3, 2024

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will significantly influence economic policies, including tariffs. If Trump wins, he is likely to impose large tariffs, particularly on Chinese goods, which could lead to higher prices for American consumers and potential retaliatory measures from China. Trump's trade policies have historically been protectionist, and his campaign has emphasized the need to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, suggesting that tariffs could be a key tool in his economic strategy.

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