Will GPT plateau?

Order book

Rules summary

If OpenAI does not release a model that is at least 100 Elo points better than its top-ranked model as of market creation, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LMSYS.

The top-ranked OpenAI model as of market creation is ChatGPT-4o-latest (2024-09-03) with a score of 1340. An OpenAI model achieving a score of 1440 will resolve the market to No.