Will GPT plateau?

What is Kalshi?

Kalshi is the first regulated platform in the US where you can trade on events, just like stocks. Think of it as the NYSE, but for things you relate to, care about, and understand.

Order book

Rules summary

If OpenAI does not release a model that is at least 100 Elo points better than its top-ranked model as of market creation, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LMSYS.

The top-ranked OpenAI model as of market creation is ChatGPT-4o-latest (2024-09-03) with a score of 1340. An OpenAI model achieving a score of 1440 will resolve the market to No.