Who will win the Ontario election?

Progressive Conservative 98%

Liberal 1%

New Democratic 1%

Live bets: Kalshi.com

ALL

Before 2025

% Chance

$6,044vol

Progressive Conservative

98%

Progressive Conservative

98%

Liberal

<1%

Liberal

<1%

New Democratic

<1%

New Democratic

<1%

Green

<1%

Green

<1%

Rules summary for

Progressive Conservative

If the Progressive Conservative party wins the most seats in the 2025 Ontario general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and CBC.

If two parties are reported to hold the same number of seats following the election, then the party that had the highest vote share will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

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