How many Senators will vote for RFK as Secretary of HHS?

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Before Aug 2025

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$562,404vol

20%

23%

17%

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Rules summary for

If exactly 51 Senators vote in favor of confirming Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services before Aug 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Senate.

Ranges are inclusive. Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

About

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist, has been nominated by President-elect Donald Trump as Secretary of Health and Human Services. Known for leading Children’s Health Defense and promoting vaccine misinformation, Kennedy’s nomination has drawn bipartisan concern over his ability to manage agencies like the CDC and FDA. While some Republicans back his stance on health transparency, many are uneasy about his vaccine skepticism. (Source: NPR)

What's happening

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The confirmation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) is uncertain, with some GOP senators expressing support while others, including former Republican Vice President Mike Pence, urge rejection due to his divisive views, particularly on abortion rights and vaccine policies[1][2]. The Senate confirmation process involves hearings with the Finance Committee and the Health Committee, providing multiple checkpoints for scrutiny[1]. The outcome will depend on how senators weigh Kennedy's controversial positions against his potential to lead the department effectively.

What's happening

Nov 26, 2024

The confirmation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) faces significant challenges due to his controversial views on vaccines and public health. While some Republican senators like Ron Johnson and Marsha Blackburn have expressed support for Kennedy's nomination, others such as Mike Crapo and Bill Cassidy have been more cautious, emphasizing the need for a thorough confirmation process[1]. The Senate Finance Committee, which will hold hearings on Kennedy's nomination, includes several Republicans who have not publicly endorsed him, including Tim Scott, Todd Young, and John Barrasso, suggesting that the vote could be tight[1].

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