Which Trump Cabinet nominee will get the most votes?

Marco Rubio 94%

Michael Kratsios 4%

Sean Duffy 1%

Live bets: Kalshi.com

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Before 2026

% Chance

$274,324vol

Marco Rubio

94%

Marco Rubio

94%

Michael Kratsios

Sean Duffy

<1%

Sean Duffy

<1%

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Important information: If a nominee withdraws from considerations prior to their first vote, Kalshi will add their nominated replacement. If a voice vote is used to confirm a nominee, their vote count will be zero. If nominees tie, then the nominee who was confirmed first will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.

Rules summary for

Marco Rubio

If Marco Rubio has received the most votes of any of Trump's Cabinet nominees, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Senate.

If no vote count is recorded for a given nominee, then that will not be counted. Once each position has had someone confirmed/appointed to the position, then the market will Expire. If nominees tie, then the nominee who was confirmed first will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet-level positions are the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

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