Who will join the Trump Administration?

The first 100 days

% Chance

$3,625,654vol

Kari Lake

82%

+10

Kari Lake

82%

+10

Corey Lewandowski

28%

-2

Corey Lewandowski

28%

-2

Natalie Harp

22%

Natalie Harp

22%

More markets

The full rules state, 'The specific office must be identified by the White House to be included.' Please read the rules summary and additional details for further clarification.

Rules summary for

Corey Lewandowski

If Corey Lewandowski has been nominated or appointed to the Trump Administration (e.g. as a Cabinet Secretary or policy advisor) before May 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from White House and Trump Transition Team.

Merely being nominated to a position that requires Senate confirmation (e.g. a federal judgeship or a Cabinet Secretary) is sufficient to resolve as Yes. Clarification 11/14/24 3:00 AM ET: Being a part of a non-governmental organization (which the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, may be) is not sufficient to resolve the Contract, even if that organization has some relationship (e.g. is contracted by) with the Trump Administration, if the person in that role is regularly advising the President, or even if that organization receives government financing. However, leading a non-governmental organization *and* holding a Cabinet-level position, or being nominated for one, or holding another position in the White House (e.g. "Senior Policy Advisor") would be sufficient to resolve the Contract. Clarification 12/14/24 3:00 AM ET: President-elect Trump recently announced his intent to have Kari Lake to lead Voice of America. This position is properly appointed by the head of the US Agency for Global Media. If she is nominated for that position by that person before the market's target date (May 1, 2025), then the market will resolve to Yes. Clarification 2/5/25 3:00 AM ET: In November, then-President-elect Trump announced that Mr. Musk would lead DOGE. However, at that time, DOGE was planned as a non-governmental organization. While this has since changed, the post does not constitute an official announcement of Musk holding a specific position in the federal government. Therefore, we have determined that the Payout Criterion has not yet been met. The contract will remain open until either Mr. Musk is named to a specific position verifiably within the federal government or until the Expiration Date. Clarification 3/1/2025 3:15 AM ET: We are aware of reports that Ms. Lake has been announced to be taking a role as “Special Advisor” to the US Agency for Global Media. The Payout Criterion states, “…* has been nominated or appointed to a position within the U.S. federal government. This includes members of the cabinet, White House Staff, senior policy advisors, and ambassadors. The specific office must be identified by the White House to be included. Nominations will be included even if the individual is not confirmed.”* We have made the determination that the payout criterion has not yet been met. “Nomination” in this sense refers to the act submitting a nomination for a Senate-confirmable position. “Appointed” is referring to actually having taken the job and started. If and when Ms. Lake is reported by a Source Agency to actually hold the a position within the federal government before the Expiration Date, this market will resolve to Yes.

Timeline and payout

People are also betting