Who will join the Trump Administration?

David Sacks 58%

Kari Lake 57%

Avi Berkowitz 35%

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The first 100 days

% Chance

$2,945,861vol

David Sacks

58%

-1

David Sacks

58%

-1

Kari Lake

57%

Kari Lake

57%

Avi Berkowitz

35%

Avi Berkowitz

35%

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Rules summary for

Kari Lake

If Kari Lake has been nominated or appointed to the Trump Administration (e.g. as a Cabinet Secretary or policy advisor) before May 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from White House and Trump Transition Team.

Merely being nominated to a position that requires Senate confirmation (e.g. a federal judgeship or a Cabinet Secretary) is sufficient to resolve as Yes. Clarification 11/14/24 3:00 AM ET: Being a part of a non-governmental organization (which the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, may be) is not sufficient to resolve the Contract, even if that organization has some relationship (e.g. is contracted by) with the Trump Administration, if the person in that role is regularly advising the President, or even if that organization receives government financing. However, leading a non-governmental organization *and* holding a Cabinet-level position, or being nominated for one, or holding another position in the White House (e.g. "Senior Policy Advisor") would be sufficient to resolve the Contract. Clarification 12/14/24 3:00AM ET: President-elect Trump recently announced his intent to have Kari Lake to lead Voice of America. This position is properly appointed by the head of the US Agency for Global Media. If she is nominated for that position by that person before the target date (May 1, 2025), then the market will resolve to Yes.

Timeline and payout

What's happening

New

Key figures likely to join or influence the Trump Administration include: - **Robert F. Kennedy Jr.**, who Trump has suggested will play a major role in healthcare, despite his controversial anti-vaccine campaigns and other conspiracy theories[2][3]. - **Donald Trump Jr.**, who has been a prominent figure in his father's campaign and is seen as a key influencer within the Republican Party[2]. - **Elon Musk**, who Trump has pledged to make a secretary of federal 'cost-cutting', with Musk suggesting he can find trillions of dollars in government spending to eliminate[3]. These individuals are part of Trump's new inner circle and are expected to play significant roles in shaping his administration's policies.

What's happening

Nov 8, 2024

Key figures likely to be part of Donald Trump's new inner circle include Donald Trump Jr., who has been described as the elder Trump's heir and has significant influence on the party and his father. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a former presidential candidate who supported Trump after withdrawing from the race, is expected to play a major role, possibly in healthcare, despite his controversial anti-vaccine campaigns. Additionally, Lara Trump, the wife of Trump's second son Eric, has risen in influence and was appointed as co-chair of the Republican Party, while Kash Patel, a former lawyer known for his extreme loyalty to Trump, is a favorite to lead the CIA.

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