Who will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

Before May 2025

% Chance

$4,393,299vol

Steve Bannon

22%

Steve Bannon

22%

Rudy Giuliani

18%

Rudy Giuliani

18%

Edward Snowden

15%

-1

Edward Snowden

15%

-1

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Rules summary for

Steve Bannon

If the President of the United States has given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve to Steve Bannon before May 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from White House and New York Times.

Clarification 2/13/25 3:00 AM ET: The rules for this event state that the payout criterion is: "… has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve…" We acknowledge that one of our Source Agencies, The New York Times, has run an article with the headline "Adams Gets a Reprieve from Trump". However, after careful analysis, we have determined that this usage of the word "reprieve" is colloquial and not in reference to the actual clemency power granted to the President by the Constitution. Therefore, at the time of writing, the Payout Criterion has NOT yet been met. Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the Constitution states: "…[the President] shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States…" The Constitution does not further define "reprieve,” but President Trump’s action towards Eric Adams does not appear to be an exercise of this specific clemency power. In the context of a presidential action, a “reprieve” relates specifically to the postponement of a criminal sentence. See, REPRIEVE, Black's Law Dictionary (12th ed. 2024) (”Temporary postponement of the carrying out of a criminal sentence, esp. a death sentence; esp., an official order halting the execution of a prisoner on death row.”). The Justice Department's order for Manhattan federal prosecutors to drop the charges does not constitute a reprieve, as Mr. Adams has not been convicted of anything at the time of writing, and it is not a “postponement.”

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