When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

% Chance

Before 2026

Before 2030

Before 2025

Rules summary for

Before 2030

If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OpenAI.

Timeline and payout

About

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a hypothetical (for the moment) type of AI with advanced reasoning skills on par with (or more advanced than) humans. In other words, it's AI that is our intellectual equal or superior. While current chatbots based on large language models (like ChatGPT) are incredibly powerful and complex, they are a far cry from human intelligence. But with constant improvements being made at such a rapid pace, what seems like a 'far cry' might end up being a much shorter timeframe than people realize.