Recession this year?
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ALL
Before 2026
$875,735vol
Order book
Rules summary
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2025 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2025 Q4 GDP. Timeline and payout
About
A recession is an economic downturn characterized by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, or negative GDP. Recessions can lead to job losses, reduced consumer confidence, and financial challenges for businesses. Fun fact: The word 'recession' has been used to describe economic setbacks since the 19th century, but the modern concept of recessions as we understand them today emerged during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
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