Senate margin of victory?
R by 4 or more 100%
R by 2 N/A
R by 3 N/A
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2024 (+0)
$9,085,904vol
R by 4 or more
Yes
R by 2
No
R by 3
No
7 more markets
Important information: The contract is settled by counting the number of seats held on Feb 1, 2025. If a seat has been vacated and is still empty on that date, it will not count towards this number.
Rules summary for
R by 4 or more
If the margin of victory in the Senate (difference between the Republicans and second largest majority) is 4 or more for the Republicans after the 2024 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from United States Congress.
This market will expire the February 1 following the election, or the next date that data is available. Independents caucusing with a party will count for that party (e.g. Bernie Sanders will count if he caucuses with the Democrats on that date). Note: this event is mutually exclusive.Timeline and payout
Trading prohibitions
