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Senate margin of victory?


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% Chance

R by 2
R by 2

R by 3
R by 3

R by 4 or more
R by 4 or more

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Rules summary for
R by 4 or more
If the margin of victory in the Senate (difference between the Republicans and second largest majority) is 4 or more for the Republicans after the 2024 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from United States Congress.
This market will expire the February 1 following the election, or the next date that data is available. Independents caucusing with a party will count for that party (e.g. Bernie Sanders will count if he caucuses with the Democrats on that date). Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Trading prohibitions
Senate margin of victory?
Senate margin of victory?
Buy Yes · R by 4 or more
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